A week in India, monsoon progresses at a snail's pace

As the southwest monsoon this year completes its first week in India, its progress across most parts of the country, barring the farthest corner of south India, has been rather tardy. Though it is unclear whether this would affect the monsoon across the rest of the country, officials said the initial signs of the southwest monsoon this year were not very encouraging.

A dismal monsoon would not only pull down overall agriculture growth in 2012-13, but also hit overall economic growth, despite the limited share of agriculture in the gross domestic product (GDP).

“To conclude a poor monsoon would not have a definite impact on overall GDP, given agriculture’s declining share, is not correct. Particularly, this year (2012-13), when overall economic growth is expected to be sluggish," said Ramesh Chand, director of the National Centre for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research. “I feel if farm growth slows because of a poor monsoon, it would surely have an impact on overall economic growth of the country.”

Falling water levels in 81 major reservoirs across the country has also added to concern on farm production. According to the Central Water Commission, till last week, water levels in reservoirs across India stood at about 19 per cent of the full reservoir level (FRL), perilously close to the 10-year average low of 15 per cent, and about 21 per cent less than the water level in the year-ago period. FRL is estimated at 154.42 billion cubic metres.

In its latest weather update, the India Meteorological Department had said the southwest monsoon had remained close to the Kerala coast since June 5, after a delayed entry into the mainland. By June 10, it should have ideally covered large parts of Maharashtra, Odisha, West Bengal, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. However, as on June 12, it has barely moved beyond Kerala.

“The next three to four days would be extremely crucial for the southwest monsoon. This is because by then, farmers would start firming their sowing plans. If rains do not move at a brisk pace, it could spell trouble for sowing of oilseeds and pulses, mainly in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat,” Chand said.

Both oilseeds and pulses are primarily grown in the rain-fed areas of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. Normally, the southwest monsoon reaches these areas by around June 15.

“Already, there are ominous signs of the El Niño emerging in the later part of the four-month season starting June. Now, if the initial rainfall, too, isn’t good, it is a sure cause for trouble,” said a senior government official.

A senior IMD official had recently told Business Standard almost all weather models followed by it now showed definite signs of the El Niño emerging by at least the later half of the southwest monsoon season this year.

From June 1-6, the southwest monsoon was almost 36 per cent below normal, the IMD said. “There is a definite cause for worry, but the situation has not turned panicky yet. We will have to wait and watch for the next few days,” Chand added.