Anti-dumping duty hike on Indian shrimps by US to have neutral impact

The recent hike in anti-dumping duty (ADD) on Indian shrimp imports by the United States is likely to have neutral impact on the exporters.

During the twelfth final review, the US Department of Commerce (USDoC) hiked the weighted-average of anti-dumping duty on import of Indian shrimp from 0.84 per cent (final review for the 12-month period ended January 31, 2017) to 1.35 per cent.

This, however is lower than the preliminary rate notified in March, 2018 of 2.34 per cent.

The two mandatory respondents selected for the current review were Devi Fisheries Limited (Devi) and the Liberty Group; the countrywide ADD is arrived based on the value-weighted-average ADD levied on the two mandatory respondents.

Devi and Liberty group together accounted for nearly 7 per cent of the processed shrimp volumes exported from India during FY2017.

“We do not anticipate any material impact on volume of shrimp exports from India to the USA, because of the hike in ADD. Given that the Indian shrimp export industry is a price taker, impact of this ADD hike will have to be absorbed across the supply chain, especially by the farmers”, Pavethra Ponniah, Vice-President and Sector Head, ICRA.

According to the rating agency, Indian shrimp exports to USA has grown at a CAGR of 24 per cent (in volume) during the period CY2013-17. Continuing to be the largest supplier of shrimps to USA, India contributed nearly 33 per cent (during the five months of CY2018) of USA’s total shrimp imports.

During the first five months shrimp imports from India witnessed about 24 per cent volume growth, however fall in realizations capped value growth at 22 per cent.

The robust volume growth was backed by weak production dynamics in other major shrimp producing geographies such as Vietnam, China, and Thailand, among others. Realisations continue to decline even during July 18, falling from their peak in September 17.

During the period FY2014-18, total Indian shrimp exports grew at a CAGR at 20 per cent volume which was fuelled by the increase in exports to USA and Vietnam.

The export contribution from Vietnam surged from 16.1 per cent (FY2014) to 25.4 per cent (FY2018) owing to weak local production dynamics in Vietnam, coupled with strong demand.

Vietnam continues to be the second largest export destination for Indian shrimp.

“However, with the global industry witnessing sharp decline in realizations since November’2017, because of demand-supply mismatches, improvement in base price for the Indian shrimp farmers and processors would be critical for ensuring that Indian farmers continue to stock their ponds in the ensuing season. 

The final review of Vietnam’s ADD is also a monitorable as Vietnam competes with India in the global markets; Vietnam preliminary review (notified in March 2018) came in at a staggering high 25.39 per cent,” added Ponniah.