Chill welcome, but no impact yet on final rabi harvest

If temperature starts rising from February-end, positive effects might stand cancelled, say meteorologists

The return of winter in north and central India could help the standing wheat and mustard crops. However, the positive effects would disappear if temperature starts rising from end-February, when plants mature.

Meteorologists had already forecast that winter would be less severe this year with fewer chilly days.

“A western disturbance-induced cyclonic circulation over Madhya Pradesh is causing rains over the region and gradually, this will move towards the eastern parts of the country, which would cause rains there as well, while winter and dense fog will continue over north India  till January 21,” Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist, Skymet Weather, told Business Standard.

According to him, although there is a hailstorm warning, it will be at isolated places and might not cause any damage.

“Overall, the current weather situation is conducive for the standing rabi crops,” said Palawat.

India Meteorological Department (IMD), too, has said in its weekly forecast hailstorm, mild rains, and dense fog over northern and central India over the next few days.

Indu Sharma, director of the Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research told Business Standard that although the sudden drop in temperature accompanied by light rains in some parts is good for the standing wheat crop in the short-term, its  positive impacts would get nullified if temperature starts picking up.

Wheat is mainly grown in the northern and central parts of the country and is the biggest foodgrain of the rabi season.

An unusually warm and dry winter so far this year has not only kept the acreage less, compared to 2015, but is also seen impacting the standing crop.

“The current dip in temperature will help in reviving the standing wheat crop and grain quality might improve a bit, but a big impact is not seen,” said Veena Sharma, secretary, Roller Flour Millers’ Association of India.

Data from ministry of agriculture showed that till January 15 this year, wheat was sown in 29 million hectares, which is 1.5 million hectares less than last year. Mustard was sown in 6.3 million hectares, a million hectares less than in 2015.

Vivek Puri, managing director of Puri Oil Mills, said the cold weather conditions and rains at a few places have improved the prospects of better mustard crop. However, the mustard oil sector as well as farmers are keeping their fingers crossed.

“Currently, the mustard crop is at flowering stage and flowering in mustard is higher by 10-15 per cent compared to last year. So, in spite of 5-6 per cent less sowing compared to last year, there are chances the output might be better this year, if the conditions remain favourable till the end,” Puri told Business Standard.

A sharp fall in mustard production could curtail domestic supplies; it could also increase import reliance as mustard is one the most common edible oils consumed in India.

WINTER COMFORT

• Cold weather conditions pick up in northern and central India
   
• This is good for the standing  crops — wheat and mustard
   
• However, much would depend on the climatic conditions in end-Feb, March
   
• Flowering in mustard is higher by 10-15 per cent  in 2016 than the previous year
   
• Till date, sowing of wheat and mustard is less than last year’s