Covid-19 cases drop after peak festival season, so does testing

31 of the 35 states/UTs analysed report a decline in number of Covid tests

Weeks after the peak festival season, Covid infections across the country continue to decline, but so do the daily testing numbers, shows a Business Standard analysis. 

While the number of cases after Diwali and Dussehra fell to less than 12,000, the number of tests were down by more than 22 per cent compared to the pre-festival season. 

Of the 35 states/Union Territories for which data is analysed, 31 states reported a decline in testing.

Some states were exceptions and it shows in their test numbers. In West Bengal, for instance, the number of tests went up in the 20 days following Durga Puja festivities. This was accompanied by an increase in the number of cases, which rose 23 per cent to 845 daily cases. 

A similar trend could be seen in Jharkhand. However, in Bihar — where the number of tests went up — cases remained minuscule. It is important to note that more than 90 per cent of the tests done in Bihar daily are rapid antigen tests and not the gold-standard of testing, the RT-PCR test. 

In Tripura, however, cases are down even as tests rise. 

Expert view

“The problem is that when you test in the absence of clinical symptoms, the virus will continue hanging around and show positive results. The data of public importance is deaths and the severity of illness,” said Jayprakash Muliyil, Chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the ICMR NIE.

Muliyil also said that breakthrough infections would happen, but since immunity in India is mostly induced by natural infection, it is expected to last much longer. “In countries such as the US where people had vaccine-induced immunity, much more breakthrough cases are happening. This also explains the large number of cases we saw in Kerala since their immunity was not through natural infection,” he added. 

The number of deaths has also come down from 408 daily deaths during the pre-festival season to 280 deaths in the post-festival season.

The fatality rate has remained stagnant at 1.35 per cent. However, some states have witnessed a rise in daily deaths.

In Karnataka, daily deaths have increased from 6 to 14 in the pre- and post-festival season, respectively. Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu witnessed an almost doubling of deaths, from 28 to 51 and 13 to 22, respectively, during this period.

According to a study, even in the case of natural infection, the antibody level may fall after a year but it will plateau and continue to have T-cell or the memory cell response for a long time. 

“If we are lucky, the immunity from Covid-19 could last a long time. The evidence from Sars1 shows that the immunity did not disappear even after 18 years,” Muliyil added.