El Nino effect likely to twist monsoon's tail

Officials say impact likely to be visible in the latter half of the 4-month season

Officials in the department of agriculture feel the impact of El Nino, a global weather pattern that disrupts the southwest monsoon in India, could be pronounced in the latter half of the four-month rainy season. The northwest, central and western parts of the country were more vulnerable to El Nino, they added.

Pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane and coarse cereals are the main crops grown in areas where El Nino's impact could be felt. Rice and maize grow in areas where the monsoon rain is likely to be normal. Poor rains do not affect major grain producing states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, where nearly 80 per cent of the farmland is irrigated.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will come out with its second monsoon forecast on Monday, with regional and monthly predictions. It has reportedly briefed the agriculture department about its findings.

The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, a collection of climatologists, had said in its forecast in April that monsoon rains this year could be below normal in west, central and southwest India. It predicted normal rainfall over south and northeast India.

The IMD in its first forecast had said monsoon rainfall in 2014 would be a below normal 95 per cent of the 50-year average from 1951.

"If the impact of El Nino is felt more towards the later half of the season the situation is more manageable," said a senior agriculture ministry official who did not wish to be named. The department of agriculture has contingency plans for an early monsoon that loses steam, a delayed monsoon that revives later, and a weak monsoon throughout.  

"We also have separate plans for horticulture crops as the impact of uneven rain is more on them," the official added. He said plans had been made for 500 districts.

"The Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) is also working to face the challenge," the official said. Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh has said the government will come up with a detailed action plan on the monsoon after the IMD's second forecast.