India forecasts FY18 GDP growth at 6.5% vs 7.1% in FY17

GVA pegged at 6.1%; implicit calculation suggests H2FY18 growth will be 7%, says TCA Anant

The government on Friday said it expected the country's gross domestic product (at constant 2011-12 prices) to be Rs 129.85 trillion in the financial year ending in March -- growth of 6.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis, compared with 7.1% in 2016-17.

"The growth in GDP during 2017-18 is estimated at 6.5 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.1 per cent in 2016-17," the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation said in its estimate of National Income for 2017-18.

Most private economists have pared their India growth forecast to 6.2-6.5 per cent for the 2017-18 financial year, citing the impact of the chaotic launch of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in July on business activities. 

"Implicit calculation suggests H2FY18 growth will be 7%," said Chief Statistician T C A Anant at a press conference after the official data were released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
 

The numbers released on Friday are widely seen as the closest picture of the economy, given the strike rate of the correctness of these data with the first provisional data in the past two years. Advance estimates are used for computing Budget numbers such as fiscal deficit. This practice started last year after the government shifted the presentation of the Union Budget to 1st February from end of February.

The Indian economy recovered from its three-year low of 5.7% GDP growth in the June quarter to grow at 6.3% in the September quarter. 

CSO pegged FY18 advanced GVA estimate at 6.1% as against 6.6% in FY17.

Farm growth is estimated at 2.1% as compared to 4.9% in the previous financial year.

The lowest estimated growth, a four-year low, under the Modi-led government will be mainly due to poor performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

The Gross Domestic Product was 8% in FY16 It was 7.5% in 2014-15.

The Narendra Modi-led NDA government had assumed office in May 2014.

Economic activities were affected by demonetisation announced on November 8, 2016 and subsequent implementation of a new indirect tax regime (GST) from July 1 in the current financial year.

As per the CSO data, the expansion in activities in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' is likely to slow to 2.1% in the current fiscal from 4.9% in the preceding year.

The growth in manufacturing sector too is expected to decelerate to 4.6% this fiscal, down from 7.9% in 2016-17.