Left, regional allies may ensure Amma's return

The Congress might have bought A R Rahman’s Oscar-winning number “Jai Ho” for the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, but in Rahman’s state — Tamil Nadu — the results might show a “Jaya Ho”, a major gain for Jayaram Jayalalitha’s All India Anna Dravida Munnethra Kazhagham (AIADMK) after it lost all 39 seats to the DMK-Congress combination in the last general elections.

In 2004, the DMK-Congress pact, along with the CPI(M), CPI and regional parties like PMK and MDMK swept in all the seats (including Puducherry) contributing a major share to the Congress-led UPA’s tally in forming the coalition government. Although it didn’t win any seat, the AIADMK still got 29.77 per cent of the votes polled in the state.

Significantly, it was more than the DMK’s individual share of 24.6 per cent. In the 1999 elections Jayalalitha — popularly called Amma — had 10 seats with a vote share of 25.68 per cent.

Results show that the two main parties maintain their pet vote bank despite their periodical loss or win. So, it is the allies like the PMK and DMDK and the communists that might give Amma some extra advantage in this election. The PMK, with a strong presence among the Vanniar community, has a major influence in 5-6 seats in northern Tamil Nadu. Similarly, Vaiko’s MDMK also has its vote bank in four seats and the communists are strong in industrial belts like Coimbatore and Tirupur.

In 2004, the PMK, MDMK, CPI(M) and the CPI were with the DMK-Congress alliance. This time, these four parties have switched over to Amma’s side.

As an auto driver in Chennai makes it easy for non-Tamil scribes from Delhi, “this time, no daddy, only mummy”, to make him understand that Jayalalithaa is all set for a comeback and emerge as one of the key players in the post-poll situation, where major forces like the BJP and the Congress may desperately need to look for allies to form their government. But Kalaignar Karunanidhi’s DMK, with the symbol of the rising sun, doesn’t look to sink completely.

Even as the ‘mummy’ returns, 85-year-old Kalaignar has been able to make an impact on at least two major sops after he came to power in the state in 2006 — free colour TVs and rice at Re 1 per kilo for the below poverty line (BPL) families. Karunanidhi had initially launched the subsidised rice scheme for Rs 2 per kilo, but last year he further slashed the price to make it available at just Re 1 per kilo.

As the state goes to polls while in the neighbourhood of Sri Lanka thousands of Tamil civilians bear the brunt of the war between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan forces, it might have an impact in some areas, especially in the southern part of the state.

Jayalalithaa, who earlier opposed LTTE chief Prabhakaran, quickly changed her stand and in all her public speeches she now talks about a separate Eelam (homeland) for the Tamils. Karunanidhi, on the other hand, has always maintained a sympathetic stand towards the LTTE and strongly supported the cause of the Sri Lankan Tamils. Karunanidhi’s best bet will be on the southern Tamil Nadu seats under his son Azhagiri’s command area and the ones in the north where he is fielding Union ministers like A Raja, T R Baalu and former Union minister Dayanidhi Maran.

As the political situation stands today, five coastal states — Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal — along with Bihar are expected to decide the fate of the three major forces in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Polling is over in the 123 seats of Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Orissa, whereas West Bengal has 11 seats left for polling on Wednesday. So, in the final phase of the elections, Tamil Nadu (39 seats) emerges as the key state on Wednesday’s polling.