Met predicts normal rain

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted normal rainfall this year. This brightened the prospects of a higher farm output providing relief from high food prices.

IMD said rainfall in the southwest monsoon was expected to be 98 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). This means the monsoon will be normal for the second consecutive year. Large parts of the country were hit by a drought in 2009.

The southwest monsoon is important as 60 per cent of the country’s area under agriculture depends on rain. Almost 70 per cent of the total annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon months (June-September). The output of major crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds and sugarcane depends on the quantum, timeliness and distribution of the southwest monsoon.

IMD said there was a very low probability of either any deficiency or excess. Normal monsoon is defined as 96-104 per cent of the LPA — the average from 1951 to 2000 — which is 89 centimetres

“There was an indication of a moderate La Nina phenomenon in the middle of April, which is expected to subside by the time the monsoon starts, making a negligible impact,” said IMD’s D S Pai.

Science and Technology Minister Pawan Bansal said the onset date would be known in May. “Normally, the southwest monsoon hits Kerala on June 1 and reaches the northern parts of the country by the end of June. Hopefully, this year it will be the same,” he said.

A good monsoon adds moisture to the soil and so also helps rabi crops. IMD will release the region-wise forecast in June.

Drought in many states in 2009 had dragged down farm sector growth to 0.4 per cent in 2009-10, despite a good rabi production. Farm output is projected to expand by 5.4 per cent in 2010-11, which is expected to help the economy register 8.6 per cent growth, as against 8 per cent in the previous financial year.

Agriculture contributes a little over 17 per cent to the gross domestic product. Also, it boosts the economy through higher demand from those whose income depends on the farm sector, the biggest employer in the country.

During 2010-11, foodgrain output was estimated at 235.88 million tonnes, the highest ever, as compared to 218.11 million tonnes in the previous year. All crops, except rice, saw record production.

Care Ratings Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis said agriculture growth would be at best in the 1-2 per cent range given last year’s record foodgrain production.

“It is hard to predict foodgrain output based on the first rainfall estimate as IMD has gone wrong on several occasions,” said D K Joshi, the chief economist of India’s leading rating agency, Crisil.

Food inflation has been a critical issue for the last two years. Foodgrain prices kept food inflation over 18 per cent last year. Since then, it has eased to 8.28 per cent.

A higher farm output would help the government manage inflation, said Joshi.