More than 70% chances of El Niño this year: Meteorologists

The chance of an El Niño weather phenomenon developing in 2014 now exceeds 70 per cent, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday, raising the prospect of damaging floods and droughts across the globe.

In India too, El Niño might have a negative impact on the southwest monsoon, expected to hit the mainland around June. In the past decade, 2002, 2004 and 2009 were the drought years in India, due to emergence of El Niño .

"It is now likely an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter," the Australian weather bureau stated on Tuesday. However, it qualified that it has still early to determine the strength of the current El Niño.

Reuters said a strong El Niño in India would trigger lower production of summer crops such as rice, sugarcane and oilseeds. India is the world's second largest producer of rice and wheat.

El Niño emerges after a gap of every three to seven years and affects rainfall in India during monsoon. The heat off the western coast of South America increases the sea surface temperatures above normal by 0.5 degree Celsius, affecting formation of rain-bearing clouds.