At 4.2% in April, US consumer prices jump most since 2009, beat estimates

US consumer prices climbed in April by the most since 2009, topping forecasts and intensifying the already-heated debate about how long inflationary pressures will last.
 

The consumer price index increased 0.8 per cent from the prior month, reflecting gains in nearly every major category and a sign burgeoning demand is giving companies latitude to pass on higher costs.
 

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core CPI rose 0.9 per cent from March, according to Labor Department data Wednesday. The surge in the core measure was the largest since 1982.
 

The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2 per cent rise in the CPI and a 0.3 per cent gain in the core measure. Treasuries fell following the data, pushing up the 10-year yield to 1.647 per cent, while the dollar climbed and S&P 500 futures extended losses.
 

The annual CPI figure surged to 4.2 per cent, the most since 2008 though a figure distorted by the comparison to the pandemic-depressed index in April 2020. This phenomenon -- known as the base effect -- will skew the May figure as well, likely muddling the ongoing inflation debate.
 

While Federal Reserve officials and economists acknowledge the temporary boost, it’s unclear whether a more durable pickup in inflationary pressures is underway against a backdrop of soaring commodities costs, trillions of dollars in government economic stimulus and incipient signs of higher labor costs.
 

The core CPI measure, which was also biased higher by the base effect, rose 3 per cent from 12 months ago. That was the largest since 1996. For the last year the annual core inflation metric had held below 2 per cent.
 

Wednesday’s report offers insight into bubbling price pressures across parts of the economy. Wages have shown signs of picking up, and supply chain challenges have elongated delivery times and driven materials prices higher.
 

While challenging for producers, swelling consumer demand has also given firms more confidence that they will be able to pass along some of the new costs. If sustained, the production bottlenecks could pose a risk of an acceleration in consumer inflation.
 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the upward pressure on prices from the rebound in spending and supply bottlenecks will have only a “transitory” impact on inflation, but many disagree. Bond market expectations for the pace of consumer price inflation over the next five years surged earlier this week to its highest level since 2006.
 

Reopening Effect
 

The Labor Department’s data showed a 10 per cent surge in the cost of used vehicles that accounted for more than a third of the increase in the overall CPI. New-vehicle prices also picked up.
 

Shelter costs, which make up a third of the overall CPI, jumped by the most in two years as rents and hotel stays advanced. Prices at hotels and motels increased by the most on record, while airfares also posted the biggest gain on record -- a reflection of a broader reopening of the economy.
 

Transportation services, which includes auto rental, car insurance and public transportation, showed the largest increase since 1975