Analysts expect bumper output for soybean

The rainfall in September is likely to determine the fortune of soybean output this kharif season, especially in the area where sowing took place after July 15, the usual end of the sowing season. Analysts estimate a bumper output this season, if the rainfall remains normal to good in the remaining monsoon period.

Approximately 25 per cent of the total area of 9.3 million hectares (ha) received below-normal rainfall in the beginning of the season. Therefore, farmers continued sowing with the extension of monsoon, mainly in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh.

This is significant as India continues to suffer from the high global prices of vegetable oil due to its high imports. The country imports 6.5 million tonnes, about 55 per cent of its total consumption, to meet the growing demand.

In the current sowing season, area under soybean recorded an increase of 5 per cent.

“Although germination in the early sowing area is satisfactory and podding of seed is seen to be normal, September rainfall would determine the fate of at least 25 per cent of the late sowing area,” said Rajesh Agrawal, spokesperson and coordinator of the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA).

“If rainfall remains normal in September, then we see a total output of approximately 10.05-10.10 million tonnes, a rise of up to 10 per cent from the last season. In any case, soybean output can be estimated at over 9.5 million tonnes, considering the current moisture content in the field at an average yield of the last year’s level at 1.12 tonnes per ha,” he added. Higher soybean output may ease pressure on imports.

In Madhya Pradesh, the total area of 5.1 million ha were covered against the target of 4.8 million ha.

In Maharashtra, 2.7 million ha were covered under soybean this kharif season against an area of 2.29 million ha in the corresponding period last year.

In Rajasthan, sowing started with the monsoon and area sown till date was 849,000 ha.