Climate change may result in foodgrain demand-supply gap

India’s annual foodgrain production could fall short of demand by 20 million tonnes by the end of next decade, if urgent measures are not taken to minimise the impact of climate change, according to the ministry of agriculture.

The ministry has sought Rs 1,08,000 crore in the form of additional budgetary support till 2016-2017 for various initiatives to reduce the impact of climate change on agriculture. Of this, 60 per cent will be spend on technological advancement and 29 per cent on building infrastructure.

According to ministry’s estimates, the demand for foodgrain (wheat, rice, coarse cereals and pulses) during the next ten years will rise to 281 million tonnes from the current 220 million tonnes, whereas production will only rise to 261 million tonnes, if no steps are taken to nullify the impact of climate change on the yield of crops.

“This would leave a shortfall of around 20 million tonnes between demand and supply,” the ministry said in a recent presentation to the Planning Commission.

To prevent the shortfall, foodgrain production will have to rise to 301 million tonnes by 2020, which, when compared to the projected demand, will then leave a surplus of 20 million tonnes.

The ministry said climate change impacts farming in multiple ways. It leads to lower productivity and poor quality of crops and results in degradation and depletion of soil and water resources. It also increases the chance of additional heat stress on livestock and impacts aquatic habitat.

“All this could lead to massive agrarian distress,” the ministry said. Agriculture emanates 17.6 per cent of the total greenhouse gases, which is second only to power generation. “Of this, 63.4 per cent is contributed by livestocks and 20.9 per cent by rice cultivation,” the ministry said.

While climate change is expected to raise temperatures by 0.2 degree Celsius every decade, mean summer rainfall would also rise and dry spells would become longer and more intense. “Contraction of snow cover and a rise in sea levels are the other adverse impacts of climate change,”