Kharif output to decline marginally: Refco
The shortfall is largely owing to the delayed arrival and advancement of south-west monsoon
| As the last leg of southwest monsoon sets in, rain coverage in September is considered crucial for the late season crop development. |
| "The precipitation coverage forecasts are not as gloomy as they were late in August and have raised optimism for 2005-06 kharif production," the report said. |
| While the government estimates 1 per cent rise in acreage, a better yield year-on-year seems unlikely. |
| According to the report, the record 2.5 tonne per hectare yield seen last year is unlikely this season but the yield will be well above the average trend yields. |
| Cotton is also expected to see above-trend yields, the report added. Oilseeds, pulses and coarse cereal yields are estimated to run below trend this year amid dryness in late August. |
| The shortfall is largely due to the delayed arrival and advancement of southwest monsoon, leading to irrigation problems for regions dependent on rains for the purpose. |
| What followed delayed rains was a series of early season floods in Gujarat and mid-season floods in Maharashtra. |
| This delayed kharif sowing and led to lower acreage of oilseeds and coarse cereals. |
| Rains in August and early September are vital for crop development. Any absence of adequate rains will stress the crops and result in lower yields. |
| From mid-August, most states have witnessed scanty rainfall. Thus, kharif crops are currently in the "make or break" time-frame, the report said. |
| "It is important that India receives adequate rains in September to assure normal kharif production and to sustain sufficient subsoil moisture for the winter growing crops," Rajini Panicker, head- research, Refco Commodities said. |
| "September has begun on a good note with rain coverage expanding during the first week and 10-15 day forecasts are encouraging as well," Panicker said. |