Banking update (Source: Centrum Broking report) Key trends during the month
$ Non-food credit growth has been on a rise; for the fortnight ended 23rd Nov, 2018 – credit grew 15.3% YoY; strongest in past 5-years; growth in systemic deposits stood at 9.4% YoY. LDR at 76.7% is at its near multi-year high.
$ RBI sectoral deployment of credit for Oct, 2018 pointed to growth acceleration in segments of services (+27.4% YoY) and personal loan (+16.8% YoY). Banking credit to NBFC space remains healthy (up 55.6% YoY for the month of Oct’ 18 and fourth consecutive month of 40%+ YoY growth); share of credit to NBFC space is now at 7%, highest ever.
$ The quarterly statistics study revealed that private players continue to gain market share. As at Sept’18 – private banks accounted for 31% of systemic credit and 25.7% of overall deposits.
Systemic rates; bond yields and spread
$ On a YTD basis, policy rates are up 50bps; MCLR is up 40-50bps over the same time.
$ The outbreak of default by IL&FS saw corporate bond spread widened. 10-yr AAA corporate bond spread over 10-yr G-sec is at 110bps (5-year average at 80bps); spread of 10yr AA over 10-yr Gsec is at 160bps (vs. 5-year average at 130bps).
$ Nov’2018, however has seen some normalcy returning in commercial paper market with Rs2.4tn of new CP issuances (Rs1.75tn in Oct’18 / Rs2.2tn in Sept’18). On a systemic basis, stock of CP O/s. at Rs5.8tn grew 23.4% YoY.
$ The narrowing of spread between 1-yr AAA corporate bond and 1-yr MCLR rates have seen corporate resort to bank borrowing (over money market instruments).