MCX Crude Oil may break Rs 5,000-mark; Natural Gas remains weak

The MCX Crude Oil futures seem on course to test the 200-WMA placed at Rs 5,000. However, given the indications from momentum oscillators, the commodity may break the support level.

The MCX Crude Oil futures have cracked heavily in recent trading sessions, and are now trading with a negative bias on multiple time-frames. The momentum too is clearly in favour of the bears, hence further losses seem likely.

Here's how Crude Oil and Natural Gas futures are placed on the charts.

MCX Crude Oil

Bias: Bearish

Last close: Rs 5,526

Target: Rs 4,600

Support: Rs 5,000

Resistance: Rs 5,600 - Rs 5,850

The MCX Crude Oil futures have cracked sharply in the last few trading sessions, and presently trending with a negative bias on multiple time-frames. 

As per the daily and weekly chart, the near-term bias is likely to remain bearish as long as the commodity trades below Rs 5,600-level, above which the next significant hurdle would be Rs 5,850.

On the weekly scale, the MCX Crude Oil April futures now seem headed to test the 200-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) placed near Rs 5,000-mark. Given the strength in momentum oscillators, the prospects of Crude Oil falling below the Rs 5,000-mark seems higher for now.

In case that does happen, the immediate support for the Crude Oil prices could be around Rs 4,940-odd level, which is the 50-MMA (Monthly Moving Average). Below which, a dip towards Rs 4,600 level seems likely.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil April futures have given a minor sell signal for the week. The chart indicates that the bias is likely to favour the bears this week as long as the energy-based commodity trades below Rs 5,735.

On the downside, sustained trade below Rs 5,320, could trigger a fall towards Rs 5,170 - Rs 5,060 - Rs 4,950 during the course of the week.

On Tuesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil April futures may seek support around Rs 5,435 - Rs 5,410 - Rs 5,380. On the upside, the commodity contract is likely to counter resistance around Rs 5,615 - Rs 5,645 - Rs 5,670.

MCX Natural Gas

Bias: Negative

Last close: Rs 185.80

Target: Rs 145

Support: Rs 177.30

Resistance: Rs 205; Rs 240

Despite having almost halved so far in this calendar year, the pain for Natural Gas prices seems to be far from over, indicate charts. On the weekly scale, Natural Gas futures have been trending below the 200-WMA for the last 10 weeks now. 

The MCX Natural Gas futures have also broken the multiple moving averages on the monthly chart, and current trades below the 200-MMA placed at Rs 240-odd level.

Thus, the broader outlook is likely to remain negative as long as the commodity trades below Rs 240. On the downside, sustained trade below Rs 180 could drag the prices to Rs 145-odd level.

The only glimmer of hope for Natural Gas seems the MACD on the weekly chart, which is showing signs of a convergence and possible positive crossover.

Meanwhile as per the Fibonacci charts, Natural Gas prices are seen testing support at the S-2 pivot placed at Rs 185.30, below which the next significant support is at Rs 177.30. The monthly chart suggests, that the commodity could pullback up to Rs 205 on the upside.

On Tuesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, the MCX Natural Gas March futures could seek support around Rs 182.30 - Rs 179.70 - Rs 175.90; whereas, on the upside, the commodity may face resistance around Rs 191.90 - Rs 193.80 - Rs 195.70.