Key support for MCX Crude Oil near Rs 6,200; Natural Gas may consolidate

The MCX Crude Oil December futures could test Rs 7,100-level on the upside as long as the commodity manages to sustain above the 100-WMA support.

The MCX Crude Oil futures seem to be seeking support around the 100-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) placed at Rs 6,235. As long as the commodity manages to sustain above it, a pullback to Rs 7,100-level seems possible in the short-to-medium term. On the other hand, Natural Gas futures need to conquer the hurdle at its 100-DMA.

Crude Oil

Bias: Cautiously Positive

Last close: Rs 6,422

Target: Rs 7,100

Support: Rs 6,235; Rs 6,180

Resistance: Rs 6,550; Rs 6,850

After having tumbled over 37 per cent from its June high of Rs 9,635, the MCX Crude Oil futures now seem to be seeking support around the 100-WMA at Rs 6,235. The 100-WMA along with the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart at Rs 6,180 shall be the crucial support range for Crude Oil in the near term.

As long as the commodity manages to sustain above this support range, a bounce back to Rs 7,100-level seems possible. 

On the flip side, in case, Crude Oil December futures fail to hold the support area and trade consistently below the same, the doors will be open for a sharper fall towards the 200-WMA, which currently stands at Rs 4,850.

Meanwhile, as per the daily charts, the MCX Crude Oil December futures are likely to consolidate in a trading band of Rs 6,050 to Rs 6,550, with a possibility of upside extension to Rs 6,850-level.

Also read: Crude oil prices can rise up to $110 a barrel in 2023, say analysts

Among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is near oversold territory. The MACD and Slow Stochastic too are showing signs of likely moderation in selling pressure. Thus, indicating that the downside could be limited for now.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Crude Oil December futures, has crossed the weekly R1 (Resistance) placed at Rs 7,514 in intra-week trades so far. Hence, it seems likely that the commodity could test higher hurdles at Rs 6,580 and Rs 6,645 during the course of this week.

As per the daily Fibonacci chart, on Wednesday, the MCX Crude Oil December futures are likely to seek support around Rs 6,385 - Rs 6,355 - Rs 6,310. On the upside, the Crude Oil futures could face resistance around Rs 6,490 - Rs 6,510 - Rs 6,530. 

Natural Gas

Bias: Consolidation likely

Last close: Rs 592

Support: Rs 554

Resistance: Rs 595; Rs 625

The MCX Natural Gas November futures seem to be facing resistance around the 100-DMA (Daily Moving Average) placed at Rs 595 in the recent trading sessions. Above which, the next immediate hurdle is at Rs 625 - the 50-DMA.

Even as select key momentum oscillators are in favour of the bulls, they are showing some signs of tiredness. Hence, Natural Gas futures may consolidate in the near term. On the downside, the commodity has near support at Rs 554-level - the 200-DMA.

As long as the commodity manages to sustain above the 200-DMA, Natural Gas futures will attempt to breakout on the upside. 

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Natural Gas December futures, on sustained trade above Rs 601-level, could rally to Rs 626 - Rs 644.70 - Rs 671.70. On the flip side, the commodity could test Rs 557.50 - Rs 544 - Rs 530.50 on the downside. 

On Wednesday, as per the daily Fibonacci chart, MCX Natural Gas December futures may seek support around Rs 582.90 - Rs 580 - Rs 577.20, whereas on the upside the commodity is likely to face resistance around Rs 597.30 - Rs 601 - Rs 606.80.