Nifty expected to settle around 5,250-5,280

The Nifty maintained its support of 5,195, witnessed profit-booking above 5,250, but closed marginally above 5,200 on lack of interest at higher levels. The futures and options participants unwound long positions in the March futures as only a day is left for the expiry of the current month’s series. The market is closed tomorrow on account of Ram Navami. The trend remains positive and the Nifty is expected to settle around 5,250-5,280 on Thursday, the last day of the March series.

Traders rolled over positions, mostly long, in the derivatives segment, from the March series to the April series ahead of the expiry. Nifty April series saw 52 per cent rollovers and added 5.12 million shares in open interest, mostly through buy-side trades, which indicated that participants expected the market to remain firm in the next series. The rollovers in Reliance Industries, Infosys Technologies and ICICI Bank were healthy at 59 per cent.

The March series saw strong unwinding of 5,100- and 5,200-strike puts, mostly through buy-side trades, indicating short-covering by put writers. However, participants built long positions in 5,200-5,400 calls of the April series on expectation of a strong rally in next month’s series. The support for the Nifty is expected to be around 5,000-5,200 based on open interest build-up in Nifty put options of the April series.

Reliance Industries is expected to remain strong in next month’s series due to long rollovers. The market picture chart shows that participants built long positions in Reliance around 1,090, with a target price of around Rs 1,105 in the near future. HDFC Bank closed above the value area of Rs 1,855-1,875 on strong buying in its April futures. The time-price opportunity price projection chart suggests HDFC Bank can move up around Rs 1,910 in the near future.