Big fight ahead but Opposition is in disarray

After Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stupendous election victory, the Opposition parties seems both physically and psychologically diminished.  Unless they pull themselves together assured destruction may be their fate.

Fatigue and disappointment are natural reactions to an election debacle. Having drawn a blank in 14 states and a shock defeat in his pocket-borough of Amethi, a miffed Congress president has resigned and lashed out in frustration against his own party leaders. Since then the entire party is busy persuading a moping leader to continue instead of evolving survival strategies.

The smaller Opposition parties are in a worse state except in some southern states. In the count of those decimated stand the Rashtriya Lok Dal of Ajit Singh in Uttar Pradesh and Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha and Mukesh Sahani’s newly launched Vikassheel Insaan Party in Bihar. The fate of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi is no different.

Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata party and Babusingh Kushwaha’s Janadhikar Party in Uttar Pradesh, Raj Kumar Saini’s Loktantra Suraksha Party and Dushyant Chautala’s Jananayak Janata Party in Haryana, Pawan Kalayan’s Jana Sena Party in Andhra Pradesh, Kamal Hasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam in Tamil Nadu, have all fallen flat. The performance of the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka has been dismal as have  been the results for the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party in UP. The Trinamul Congress in West Bengal and the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh have also been cut to size.

The choice before them is either to mend fences with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or face extinction. But the victorious BJP is not in a forgiving mood. It continues to poach elected members from the Opposition parties, systematically breaking them down.

West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee for example was willing to make an overture by accepting the invitation to attend the swearing in of Prime Minister Modi despite two of her legislators and over 50 councillors defecting to the BJP. However once she realised that the kin of 50 victims of political violence in West Bengal had also been invited to the ceremony she had to withdraw her friendly gesture. A belligerent BJP had already announced that it would continue to encourage defections from the TMC.

The process of eroding the Opposition is evident in Gujarat where Congress’s OBC legislator Alpesh Thakur had defected to the BJP before the general election. Now apparently another 17 Congress legislators are ready to jump ship. In Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka the Congress-led governments could be brought down through defections. There is speculation that the BJP wants fresh elections in these states along with the state assembly elections already scheduled in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand later this year.

What should be the political strategy of the Opposition against relentless predation of their ranks?

They must continue to work their alliances more effectively for the coming state elections. The issues that brought the Opposition together in several states have not gone away. The attack on the Constitution and democratic institutions is not going slacken. Deliberate erosion of India’s pluralism will continue. Repression of critical voices through an obedient legal system is not going to stop. Nor is the extra-legal violence against minorities going to be curbed despite pious pronouncements about “sabka vishwas” (gaining the confidence of all). The Opposition must fight this knowing that the electoral battlefield will continue to be skewed with the disproportionate resources and institutional advantage enjoyed by the BJP.

Illustration by Binay Sinha

If anything, the BJP has been emboldened to push its agenda of forced homogenisation of the national political discourse.  The Opposition cannot present itself as impotent, when the other pillars of democracay -- the media and the judiciary are increasingly eager to become a part of the dominant consensus. That is why the fight back must begin as soon as the ruling party unveils its new governance agenda.

The BJP’s general election victory is not the end of interest-group politics -- “caste politics” is just one of its manifestations. The Opposition should know that the deliberate creation of fear, distrust and hopelessness which led to the election victory of Prime Minister Modi cannot last. The public cannot be kept in this negative frame of mind for ever.

That is why it is important that the Opposition parties get together publicly to raise a counter-narrative to the BJP’s agenda. This has to be done in parliament through responsible and reasonable debate to hold the government to account. But the Opposition also needs to also hold a national conversation outside Parliament which will demonstrate the relevance of politics to the marginalised, oppressed and the disenfranchised. This requires intensive and extensive interaction with the voters through mass-contact programmes and by holding public meetings of the joint Opposition. Ideological unity and united political action will have to precede any electoral adjustments.

The Opposition must continuously present alternative ideas, principles and policies to the public. This can be a way of forcing the government to take on board the mass agenda of social welfare – witness how Congress party’s poll promise of a minimum basic wage under the proposed NYAY scheme has led the government universalising its version of the minimum national farm income and announcing other welfare schemes.

The Opposition parties also need to work with the media and civil society to extend the political space, currently dominated by the BJP. Knee-jerk reactions such as boycotting TV debates are self-harming. In their struggle to deepen democracy and take on the divisive agenda of the incumbent government, the Opposition has to struggle along with sections of the media and civil society.

All this requires thoughtfulness, deliberation and planning. If the Opposition begins now then it stands a chance of changing perceptions about political possibilities over the next five years. Sulking and moping is not political action. The Opposition has its task cut out to create the army necessary for the imminent big battle of ideas.

Twitter: @Bharatitis