Covid-19 lockdown: Who will prevent a hunger pandemic?

Recent events suggest that a “hunger pandemic” may be emerging in India as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic.

On the intervening night of May 12 and 13, five men broke into Gajanand Parotha House, an eatery in Junagadh. They cooked some rice and potato curry, and left the kitchen as clean as they had found it without stealing a thing. The owner refused to file a police complaint.

On May 7, a video of migrant workers fighting violently over food inside a train at Satna railway station went viral. A week later workers travelling on a Shramik Special from Delhi to Patna mobbed the person distributing food packets provided by the local administration at Katihar. A similar incident took place at Barauni Railway Station. In the national capital on May 14, people turned violent outside a ration distribution centre.

The NGOs distributing free food are overstretched. Queues for free food are getting longer and the mandatory face mask barely allows otherwise well-clad persons to hide their shame at lining up for hand-outs.  

Facing public criticism the Union government has announced several measures for migrants returning to their villages. It has promised to bear the cost of food grain for May and June for identified migrants not covered by the National Food Security Act or existing state schemes. Ration cards will be made nationally portable. An additional Rs.40,000 crore has been allocated for MGNREGS. The scheme will be kept open during the monsoon when food stocks tend to run dry.

Though welcome, these measures face logistical hurdles. For example, how much extra food should be supplied to PDS shops to allow for non-ration card holders? How would PDS cardholders be prevented from drawing food grains twice – once on ration card and then again as a non-card holder?  The pushing of the deadline for the "one nation, one ration card" scheme from July 2020 to March 2021 has made it useless for returning migrants even supposing they have carried them back.

But a recent study, “Covid-19 lockdown – How is the hinterland coping?”, shows that food insecurity in the villages was alarming even before the migrant return. The survey of 5,000 households across 12 states by civil society organisations found that half of rural households have reduced the number of meals per day and over two-thirds have cut down on food items. Previous studies have shown that the first to be removed are milk, eggs, pulses, and meat. This is devastating for women, girls and small children who suffer disproportionately when nutrition is contracted.

The survey also found that only 12% rural households received free food and about 24% had borrowed food grains. So along with food insecurity, indebtedness and asset sales are likely to go up. Nearly one-third of the respondents reported the possibility that their children will drop out of schools to reduce discretionary expenditure, depriving them of free mid-day meals. The situation will worsen after the migrants reach home.

Poverty levels would double in 27 out of 35 states and UTs studied | MGNREGA workers, migrant labourers

Urban poverty is also likely to become more acute. A study by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy reports 27 million job losses in April 2020 alone in the 20-30 year age group. They will be competing for fewer jobs with a new cohort when industry reopens.  In addition, 33 million men and women in their 30s also lost jobs in April.

A migrant labour survey by Centre for Labour Research with Savitribai Phule University and NGOs found that 59% migrant workers in Maharashtra and 92% in Gujarat were not paid wages during the lockdown. Domestic workers, numbering over 4 million are particularly vulnerable. Threatened with “no work, no wages”, they can be seen playing hide-and-seek with lockdown enforcers in a dangerous bid to retain paid work and risk contagion.

A study by Shweta Saini of Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) estimates that poverty and income inequalities will grow due to the pandemic.

Saini simulated two income shock scenarios – one where everyone lost one month of income (roughly 10% income shock in terms of monthly per capita consumption expenditure) and another where income losses were for three months (25% income shock) assuming that incomes would recover to pre-Covid levels after May.

According to the second scenario, India’s poverty would increase by about 46%, with just the five states of UP, Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal and MP accounting for over half of the 354 million pushed into poverty due to the pandemic. Poverty levels would double in 27 out of 35 states and UTs studied. These figures are based on estimated income losses for three months, whereas they may be extended beyond May and be more acute for low income groups.

The ICRIER study suggests that a direct cash transfer of Rs.312 per person per month could bring people back to pre-Covid-19 levels of consumption expenditure (costing the exchequer Rs 19,500 crore per month). An increased cash transfer of Rs 750 would cost the exchequer Rs 46,000 crore per month. It recommends these cash transfers be sustained for at least six months, in addition continuing other benefits like enhanced PDS entitlements and cooking gas subsidies.

Cash transfers to the poor have been recommended not only by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi but even by prominent industrialists. Azim Premji, whose Wipro Foundation and Wipro companies have committed Rs 1,125 crore to fight the pandemic, has asked the government to pay Rs 7,000 per month for the next three months to each poor household or migrant. Similarly TVS Motor Company CMD Venu Srinivasan has sought a dole of at least Rs 5,000 per month for the poor for the next three months. Against these recommendations the one-time dole of Rs 1,500 for the poor under the PM Garib Kalyan Yojana appears grossly inadequate.

The economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has fallen disproportionately on the poor. India was already ranked 102nd out of 117 countries by the Global Hunger Index in 2019. Both hunger and poverty are likely to increase acutely and may become chronic in the months to come.

Twitter: @Bharatitis

Enable GingerCannot connect to Ginger Check your internet connection
or reload the browserDisable in this text fieldEditEdit in GingerEdit in Ginger×