Are general elections a referendum where polls are about 'Modi vs Nobody'?

The BJP went about setting context for repositioning Modi in a meticulous way. It began by stemming the attrition of allies and Modi was built up as ultra-nationalist who alone could punish Pakistan

Democratic processes and institutions are expected to halt the rise of unbridled power. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has manipulated, and twisted them in his five-year rule, destroying the institutions that could have acted as a check on authoritarian tendencies. How will his authoritarian style fare with the voter as we head towards another general election?

In the 2014 general election, candidate Modi managed to project himself as a strong and only alternative against a Congress leadership enfeebled by corruption allegations. He cashed in on the general atmosphere of disillusionment articulated and fanned by Anna Hazare and Arvind Kejriwal’s anti-corruption agitations preceding the 2014 polls. Though the middle classes thought that Hazare and Kejriwal spoke for them, the campaign in effect stoked the hope of a strong leader who would salvage India from sinking deeper into corruption.

Narendra Modi emerged as the main beneficiary of that public anger and expectation. Kejriwal’s emergence on Delhi’s political scene was a mere corollary to that. The net result was that populism took a strident authoritarian avatar at the Centre.

That was five years ago. Today, Prime Minister Modi is trying to rework the same script. The hype about teaching a lesson to Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism is a step in that direction. It would help him to once again convert the general election into a referendum where the polls are about “Modi vs. Nobody”.  Should he succeed, his authoritarian style will gain both legitimacy and an opportunity to expand.

Prime Minister Modi’s authoritarian governance operates through a narrow circle of trusted people (a ruling elite of “two and a half people” as Arun Shourie put it) and blatantly uses key institutions of governance, investigative agencies and security apparatus to silence its critics. But the unprecedented control he has over media-owners and through them over media practitioners is the key to his political strategy. Without the media he could not project himself as the leader nonpareil, whose extraordinary abilities and courage alone can solve the country’s problems. Other political elites, stretching all the way to India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru are thereby routinely painted as corrupt, incompetent and lacking strategic vision. Their mess, a virtual Augean Stables, has been left for the heroic leader to clean up. The overall theme and its motifs have been the common script of authoritarian leaders everywhere although its details draw from the right wing’s cultural critique of secular nationalism and its leadership.

Will the voters once again equate criticism of Modi as criticism of the nation and back his leadership? Only an election will settle these questions. However, circumstances are very different from those in the run up to the 2014 general election.

This time around, the public mood was distinctly against his government before the airstrikes on Pakistan. There was disappointment with his governance and the grandiose posturing of the prime minister were drawing amusement and even derision.

The assessment of the ruling Baratiya Janata Party (BJP) was that its electoral fortunes were down from 2014 and that it might have to settle for less than 175 seats. The mother organisation of the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh was worried about whether the prime minister’s authoritarian style leadership would carry the day should the need arise to mobilise support for forming a coalition government.

Even the target he pummelled in the 2014 election, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, had begun to shine retrospectively against the dismal economic performance and growing social divisiveness under Modi’s watch. The allies of the BJP in the National Demcoratic Alliance (NDA) were straining at the leash and some had even quit the alliance. If allies showed no faith in the winnability of the prime minister, how could he be sold to the public?

The BJP went about setting the context for repositioning Modi in a meticulous way. It began by stemming the attrition of allies. Except for the Telugu Desam Party and the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, it brought the others back in the NDA fold by virtually prostrating itself before them.

In the second phase of the operation, Modi was built up as the ultra-nationalist who alone could punish Pakistan.

In the third phase, currently underway, the Opposition is being bled, especially the Congress. Enticing its state legislators in states like Gujarat to join the BJP will help to create the image of a party that is on a winning streak. In Haryana, two prominent Congress leaders –  an MLA from a prominent Congress family and a former MP and business tycoon – are being persuaded to desert the Congress. There will be many more desertions and defections before the polls. As the behaviour of Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati shows, no arm is being left untwisted to trip the Opposition.

The projection of Modi’s image is as much his personal need as it is of the BJP. If the election becomes a referendum it will demolish challengers from within the party both before and after the election.

Although Prime Minister Modi may yet succeed in converting this election into a personal referendum, important factors militate against it. His popularity does not cut across the geographies and cultural regions of India. The BJP’s influence is limited to North India and pockets of Western India.

The sheer diversity of India prevents a homogenous electorate to be swung one way or the other by the persona of a charismatic politician. Nationalism in India is underwritten by strong sentiments of regional pride. Regional leaders leave their national counterparts far behind in voter approval in their states. Similarly, caste which plays a crucial role in determining voter behaviour, goes against a simple referendum on the persona of a leader. Therefore, in many regions a referendum on Modi will pitch him against regional leaders and multiple caste configurations.

Much as he might desire to convert the 2019 general election into a referendum about his exaggerated attributes, Prime Minister Modi may not be able to create an overarching ultra-nationalist election campaign.

The writer is a journalist based in Delhi. He tweets @bharatitis