Letters: A contingency plan

This refers to the editorial "Bad weather news" (April 24). We are still an agri-based economy, with over 46 per cent of the working population engaged in this sector. Obviously, bad monsoon is going to play havoc in our economy and inflation. On a micro-level, it affects the normal lives of farmers - sometimes leading them to commit suicide.

The issue is not whether the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is correct or Skymet is correct. In prediction, everyone has the moral right of going wrong because of obvious differences in perceptions about some unforeseen phenomena, which no model can capture, however accurate it might be. It has happened with IMD and also with economists while predicting gross domestic product growth.

The real issue that needs to be addressed is whether we are ready with a contingency plan. A contingency plan is independent of what the forecasts are - it acts on the principle of uncertainty and a certain amount has to be allocated for that.

The question is whether or not we are ready with that plan. It makes more sense to take stock of the contingency plan and make sure that everything is well-arranged and organised, before the disaster actually takes place.

Ashok Chakrabarty, Kolkata

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