Permutation, combination of alliance politics

With Assembly elections due in the state in May, political parties are on the hunt for partners who will suit their needs the most

As the current Tamil Nadu government wraps up its term in May this year, political parties in the state are gearing up to forge alliances that would suit them best for the ensuing Assembly elections.

The two major Dravidian parties - the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and its arch rival, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) - that have ruled the state for more than 50 years now, are the key contenders to form the next government.

This time, a third front has been formed ahead of the elections under the name, People's Welfare Front (PWF), which includes the two communist parties and smaller Dalit parties - Vaiko's Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) led by Thol Thirumavalavan. National parties, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), are yet to decide who they want to align with for the Assembly elections, expected to be held in the end of April or the first week of May.

Election fever has gripped the parties in the last few weeks, with the DMK making the first move. Party chief M Karunanidhi's son and party treasurer M K Stalin toured the state, albeit in formalwear - not white shirt and veshti, the traditional attire of a south Indian politician. His Namukku Naame (We, On Our Own) campaign has already reached its fourth phase. The party has also had meetings with Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), led by actor-turned-politician Vijaya-kanth, as well as other parties.

The AIADMK's campaign began last week, with the party appointing 65,616 vote canvassers, one for every polling booth to meet each voter repeatedly before the elections. The party, which contested in the last Lok Sabha elections and notched up a significant victory in the state, has left options of an alliance open. On this, AIADMK President and Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa said the party would take the right decision at the right time.

The DMDK - which contested the last Assembly polls in alliance with the AIADMK but later sat in the Opposition - and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) are yet to make up their minds, yet both have announced their senior leaders as chief ministerial candidates. Interestingly, the two regional parties had joined hands with the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Nearly three years after snapping ties with the Congress, the DMK's Karunanidhi has made overtures to the party. The BJP is trying to woo the smaller Dravidian parties to get more seats in the Assembly. To this end, its leaders have met DMDK leader Vijayakanth. State BJP President Tamilisai Soundararajan has said the party will not go with either the AIADMK or the DMK.

Jayalalithaa is on friendly terms with senior BJP leaders back in Delhi, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. When she returned to Tamil Nadu after spending 21 days in a prison in Bengaluru over a disproportionate assets case, Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley met her at her house, at a time when she was not the CM.

Smaller parties such as the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK), which had aligned with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, have not confirmed any alliance so far. If the BJP strikes an alliance with the AIADMK, the DMDK and the others, who had opposed Jayalalithaa in the past, may gravitate towards other poles, according to observers of Tamil Nadu politics.

Political analysts said that while voters in the three districts of Chennai, Tiruvallur and Kanchipuram were disappointed with the ruling AIADMK after facing hardships in the recent floods, those in the southern parts of the state continued to have hope from Jayalalithaa's party.

If the AIADMK returns to power, it will be in a position to dictate terms to the BJP at the Centre as the latter doesn't have the numbers in the Rajya Sabha to pass important Bills.

The DMK has taken up recent issues such as corruption, law and order and the release of water from the Chembarambakkam lake that is said to have caused the floods in Chennai.

However, politics within the party could go against it in the Assembly polls. While Karunanidhi is unanimously accepted as party leader, his son Stalin garnered much of the limelight in the last few years. This did not go down well with Stalin's older brother and former Union minister M K Alagiri, who was eventually dismissed from the party.

Amid all this action, the party that has quietly moved its coin is Vaiko's DMDK. Contesting its first election in 2011, the party managed to get the status of leader of the Opposition in the Assembly. Although many criticised Vaiko's mannerisms, his party managed to wean DMK votes, said a political analyst. No wonder the BJP, Congress, PWF and even the DMK are all trying to interest the DMDK in an alliance.

The Tamil Maanila Congress founded by former Union minister and former Congress leader G K Vasan, would also be a candidate in poll alliance talks. The general view is that he had been soft on the AIADMK in the past, hence chances were that he would align with the ruling party.