Reading the wind: For 2019, Opposition unity may not be an illusion

The setback in Hindi heartland has made BJP's allies restive while for Opposition there seems to more sense in coming together now

Emerging from hibernation after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost three crucial state elections, party president Amit Shah declared that Opposition unity was an illusion -- “It does not exist and is a bhranti (illusion).” 

Somebody should tell Shah that it is dreaming that makes us human. That it is illusions which shape reality became clear when the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RSLP) of Upendra Kushwaha left the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and joined the Opposition alliance in Bihar sensing the BJP’s defeat in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.  Some like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha read the wind earlier. 

Following the BJP’s rout in the Hindi heartland one can safely predict that illusion or no illusion, the Opposition will accrue strength in the run up to the general election while the BJP’s alliances will weaken. 

Although the BJP president has suggested that the NDA could expand beyond the present 31 parties, smaller regional players may no longer find the alliance as attractive as in 2014. Those already there have upped their demands for the coming Lok Sabha polls even as some might be preparing to jump ship.

That the BJP has not been able to keep its flock happy is most evident in the case of the Shiv Sena. It has been such an unruly alliance partner that had the BJP been stronger, it would have asked Uddhav Thackeray to take a walk. In all likelihood, the Shiv Sena will eventually go with the NDA but its attempts to erode the public image of the BJP will not cease.  

The BJP’s desperation to count every seat for the 2019 general election also explains the extent to which Amit Shah and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley have had to placate that weather-vane of Indian politics, Ramvilas Paswan. His son, Chirag Paswan, MP from Jamui, has been particularly belligerent of late, cheekily asking Arun Jaitley: “Could you please make available the list of benefits to the country from demonetisation which I can share with my electorate in the run-up to the elections?”

The Paswans have demonstrated however that threats work like a dream with a weakened BJP. They have been offered six seats in Bihar while Ramvilas Paswan will go to the Rajya Sabha.

Not all threats have worked. Kushwaha had to jump ship and a restive Om Prakash Rajbhar of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party may follow suit. But alliance partners remain restive. The JD (U) has opposed any attempt to bring out an ordinance for constructing a Ram Temple at the disputed site in Ayodhya. Naresh Gujaral of the Shiromani Akali Dal has said that minorities feel unsafe today. Ramdas Athawale has gone out of his way to compliment Rahul Gandhi on his state election victories, declaring, “He is no more a 'Pappu' now but has become a 'Pappa'.” These parties may not leave the NDA but they are clearly repositioning themselves for 2019. 

The BJP is also encouraging all regional parties with which it has no contradictions to form a Federal Front keeping out the Congress. Floated by K Chandrashekhar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the idea is now being actively promoted by Prashant Kishore of the JD (U). This grouping could support a BJP-led government if it falls short of majority after the elections. It will be the BJP’s Trojan horse. 

As for signs of a wind blowing in favour of the Opposition, one clue was provided by Dravida Munnetra Kazhaghan chief, M K Stalin’s declaration that he would support Rahul Gandhi for prime minister in 2019. The DMK chief is bound to have angered Opposition leaders with prime ministerial ambitions like Mayawati of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamul Congress. Both would have preferred the Congress to lose in at least two states -- MP and Chhattisgarh. The BSP thwarted an alliance with the Congress by inflating its demand for seats in MP and Rajasthan and joined hands with Ajit Jogi to ensure the Congress’ defeat in Chhattisgarh. It is significant that neither Mayawati nor Banerjee congratulated the Congress on its victory. After M K Stalin’s statement, they, along with Akhilesh Yadav, avoided the swearing-in ceremonies of the new Congress chief ministers. 

The Samajwadi Party and the BSP cannot, however, afford to exclude the Congress in UP. They need seats from the Congress in other states. They cannot also forget that the Congress surprisingly won 22 parliamentary seats in UP on its own in 2009. 

Mamata Banerjee may also have to be more solicitous towards the Congress now. She has to work out whether it might still be productive to form a regional front minus the Congress and the BJP and what the relationship of such a grouping would be with the Congress. If she is suspected of playing the BJP’s game, that could cost her dearly at the national level. This was something that Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party had advised her against earlier when she was drifting towards a Federal Front with the TRS. 

Even the bete noir of the Congress, Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), seems ready to explore an alliance with it. Otherwise, he would not have got his knickers in a twist when some of his legislators moved a motion to revoke the Bharat Ratna awarded to Rajiv Gandhi. Might this also be a sign of change in the political climate?

Just as the NDA will not be the same as in 2014, the Opposition will not be as disunited as it was then. Each side has to find an effective vehicle for tapping the prevailing public mood. If nothing else survival instinct will force the Opposition parties to come together. That instinct is certainly no bhranti (illusion).

The writer is a journalist based in Delhi. He tweets @bharatitis