Sanjay Jog: NCP the big gainer in the divorce of saffron parties

BJP managed to isolate the Shiv Sena but CM Devendra Fadnavis will face an acid test every time there's a vote in the Assembly

It would have been unthinkable some years ago but it is a reality now: two pro-Hindutva political groups - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena - are pitted against each other as the ruling and Opposition parties, respectively, in Maharashtra.

This is not just a coincidence or a contest of egos but part of a calculated plan by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah to isolate the BJP's former ally. Despite the divorce ahead of the Assembly polls, the Shiv Sena was hopeful about the revival of the marriage. But it was forced to satisfy itself with the Opposition leader's post.

The Shiv Sena played for high stakes but has turned out to be a big loser. The saffron party failed to realise how determined the BJP was to implement its shat pratishat (100 per cent) agenda.

In this development, it is the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) that has gained. The NCP's image had taken a serious beating due to various scams involving its former ministers. But it has occupied the position of kingmaker by announcing its unconditional support to the BJP that won 122 seats, still 22 short of a simple majority.

The NCP didn't just get the better of the Shiv Sena, it also bested the BJP, which had to keep issuing clarifications that it had not sought the support of the NCP. After winning the much-debated trust vote by voice vote in the Assembly, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis admitted that his party had not rejected outside support extended by the NCP, which abstained in the vote.

Fadnavis thereby indicated that the BJP prefers the "practical" NCP and not the Shiv Sena, which was not prepared to play second fiddle despite winning only 63 seats. The BJP's "working" relationship with the NCP has the tacit support of Modi and Shah, who are believed to have argued that the NCP's pro-development approach will not only help the government function smoothly, but also help further marginalise the Congress and push the Shiv Sena aside. However, Fadnavis will have to face the acid test every time there is a vote.

For the NCP, it is a win-win situation since it is convinced that the decimation of the Congress, which won 42 seats, is essential for its consolidation. The NCP also realised by supporting the BJP government, it will be in a stronger position to regain lost ground.

However, a section of the BJP and its parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, is still suspicious about the party's proximity to the NCP. This, they feel, will seriously affect the BJP's "party with a difference" tag. The party could also lose its traditional vote bank, which is against the NCP and Congress. Further, they are worried that youth, women, the working class and minorities, who have voted for Modi's development agenda, might think twice now. The BJP's vote share is a record 27.8 per cent followed by the Shiv Sena at 19.3 per cent, the Congress at 18 per cent and the NCP at 17.2 per cent.

Although the BJP cadre is not openly opposing the party's decision to take the the NCP's help, they do feel the party's image will be damaged. Modi had also appealed to the voters to banish the "corrupt NCP."

A former NCP minister said it will be challenging to convince the cadre and voters that the decision to support a BJP government was to ensure stability. However, he noted that when extending "help" to the Fadnavis government, NCP president Sharad Pawar never committed himself to a time frame.

Some BJP insiders point out that the NCP might get a place in the Modi-led Cabinet at the Centre in the next six months. Besides, NCP legislators could be inducted in Fadnavis' Cabinet. This apart, some BJP leaders made a strong case for reaching out to the Shiv Sena by offering them five to 10 ministerial berths in the state Cabinet and one Cabinet and one minister of state at the Centre. However, this won't happen immediately since the Shiv Sena, which has assumed the post of leader of opposition, might not yield to avoid criticism from its rank and file.

Moreover, the BJP, after six months, may entertain the entry of "ayarams" especially from the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena and seek their re-election on the party symbol.

For the moment, Fadnavis has clearly asked party leaders not to engineer a split or encourage other party members' entry into the BJP to avoid any controversy. But the onus of a stable government now lies with him: and it might turn out to be a crown of thorns.