StatsGuru-29-October-12

In January 2008, the Sensex hit its record inter-day peak, of just over 21,000. It came close again in 2010, but seems bound below 19,000, as Table 1 shows. Compared with that high, it has lost just short of nine per cent of its value, as Table 2 shows. The losses are particularly strong among mid-cap and small-cap stocks, as is also visible in Table 2.

What, though, are the big sectoral winners and losers? As Table 3 shows, “defensive” sectors such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs) and pharmaceuticals, which preserve value even in downturns, have gained the most. FMCGs have gained as much as 155 per cent compared with their value when the overall Sensex hit its peak. Meanwhile, the sectors that drove the boom have now crashed; realty trades have lost 85 per cent of their market peak values, telecommunications have lost 65 per cent and capital goods 60 per cent. Oddly, automobiles have continued to increase in value, as have cement stocks. The big individual gainers, as shown in Table 4, among large-cap stocks have been Sun Pharma, TCS – which has had recession-proof growth – and ITC.

Meanwhile, realty majors DLF and Unitech have led the market in losses, as has Reliance Communications.(Click here for tables)

Which companies have performed poorly in spite of market expectations from their respective sectors? Cricket magnate N Srinivasan’s India Cements stands out in Table 5. So does MCX promoter Jignesh Shah’s Financial Technologies and the Bhartias’ Jubilant Life Sciences. Among the stocks that have outperformed in value-losing sectors are Cairn India and BPCL, as well as the rapidly expanding Havells India, as Table 6 shows.