Modi Vs BJP? The match is not over yet

With the first polling date barely two weeks away on April 9, the question that appeared to have been settled by the BJP, is once again being asked: if it is asked to lead the next government, who will be its choice for prime minister – Narendra Modi or someone else like Rajnath Singh or Arun Jaitley?

 

The issue has revived after a noted supporter of Modi said that there was plot by a section of the BJP to make sure that the party wins only around 160-170 seats so that, in order to draw in allies, the BJP is forced to dump Modi in favour of someone more acceptable to them. The two names being mentioned in this context are Rajnath Singh and Arun Jaitley. 

 

For this to be accepted as a genuine possibility, three prior assumptions must be made. First, that a section of the BJP will work to defeat their own candidates; second, they will succeed; and three if they do, the BJP with less than 175 seats will still be able to attract allies.

 

The question then boils down to whether the anti-Modi group can engineer defeat in around 20-25 seats, of which around 15-20 would have to be in UP and Bihar. These two states are, together, expected to return around 60-65 BJP MPs.

 

This, in turn, can happen, only if the RSS cooperates with the dissidents. Given that the dissidents are those who have been cast aside by it, this seems very unlikely. 

 

There could, of course, be locally popular candidates who have not been given tickets and they could cut into the BJP vote. In an election in which the margins of victory or defeat will be narrow, this could make a big difference to the final outcome. 

 

But how probable is this in as many as 25 constituencies? Let us assume that it happens in 15. 

 

That would reduce the BJP’s expected tally from 195 to 180 – which is what it is betting on anyway. Anything above that is pure bonus.

 

All things considered, therefore, it would seem that even if the BJP gets only 160-170 seats, it won’t be because of internal sabotage but just the run of play.