The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) noted in a report that the federal government has adopted measures to cut emissions in electricity generation and transportation.
Several provincial governments have also announced a patchwork of programs.
However, the PBO said: "Those measures, while substantial, are unlikely to achieve the target on their own.
"Deeper reductions will be needed," it concluded.
The PBO -- which is independent of the government and reports directly to MPs -- calculated that Canada's carbon emissions linked to global warming have stabilized at just over 700 million tonnes per year.
On Friday, 160 nations will sign the agreement reached in Paris aimed at keeping a rise in global temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Trudeau will be present at the UN ceremony.
"It's going to take our best effort to fight climate change," the prime minister said in Twitter message today.
In a speech in New York, he said, "We can't stop using fossil fuels tomorrow, but we need to be more thoughtful in our approach on how we use them.
So far, Canada has cut emissions from coal use and brought in stricter fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks.
In its March budget, the federal government earmarked Can$2 billion (USD 1.6 billion) for a climate strategy.
But Trudeau failed in the same month to reach an accord with provincial leaders on a national carbon pricing scheme.
Canada's 10 provincial premiers also rejected calls for deeper greenhouse gas cuts, and insisted they would each tailor plans for their respective regions.
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