Catalonia holds key vote in Spain secession drive

A European season of separatist fervour kicks off today with Catalan lawmakers voting on whether to seek the right to hold a referendum on independence from Spain.
The EU will be watching closely as Belgium's Dutch speakers gear up to push for greater autonomy in May elections, and Scotland prepares to hold its own referendum on breaking away from Britain in the fall.
Today's vote is a milestone in years of mass protests by Catalans, who are fiercely proud of their distinct culture and language, demanding the right to decide whether they want to secede. But it is also largely a symbolic one.

Catalonia can ask Spain for permission to hold an independence vote all it wants; Madrid still has the power to say "no" and it almost certainly will.
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has repeatedly said he will not allow a Catalonia secession referendum because Spain's 1978 constitution doesn't envision anything but a unified Spanish state, and mandates that referendums affecting Spain must be held nationally and not regionally.
He has an absolute majority in Parliament that assures he will prevail, and the main opposition Socialist party also opposes a referendum vote.

Still, today's vote, expected to win easily, could fan the flames of an already impassioned independence drive, especially if it garners the two-thirds majority that supporters are hoping for.

A strong separatist message may also inspire independence movements elsewhere in the EU at a time when European unity has been rocked by economic crisis.
In Spain, the momentum generated by this week's events will put wealthy Catalonia "into a head-on collision with the Madrid government," predicted Hugh O'Donnell, professor of cultural politics at Glasgow Caledonian University.
"I think the political temperature in Spain is going to increase very significantly."
Even if Madrid refuses to allow an independence vote, Catalan politicians might decide to try to hold a referendum anyway.
That would put them in perilous legal terrain: When the northern Basque region, where separatist sentiment has also raged, failed to obtain permission for a similar referendum in 2005, Spain said Basque leaders could face jail time if they went ahead and held the vote anyway.

A less extreme scenario would be to use Catalan regional elections as a kind of unofficial referendum, with parties obliged to clearly state where they stand on independence.
Under such a situation, any vote for a pro-independence party would be taken as a de facto vote for independence. A big "yes" turnout would give further ammunition to independence supporters to push for a referendum, with or without Spain's approval.