The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) -- dubbed the central bank of central banks -- said a gauge of Chinese debt had hit a record high in the first quarter of the year.
China's credit-to-GDP gap reached 30.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, its highest level ever and far above the 10 per cent level thought to present a risk to a country's banking system, the Switzerland-based bank said in a quarterly report released late yesterday.
The BIS gave China a red signal: a warning that it could face a financial crisis in the next three years.
China's total debt hit 168.48 trillion yuan (USD 25 trillion) at the end of last year, equivalent to 249 per cent of national GDP, the China Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank, has estimated.
The warning comes as Beijing tries to avoid a "hard landing" for the economy while transforming it from one based on state investment and exports to consumer-led growth.
Because China is a key driver of world growth, a crisis in its banking sector could have catastrophic implications around the world, with the global economy still struggling to recover from the 2008 financial crisis.
China's credit-to-GDP gap for the period was well above all other countries in the survey, which covered 43 economies including the United States, Greece and the United Kingdom.
The BIS early-warning indicators are intended to capture "financial overheating and potential financial distress" in the medium term and to highlight the fact that rapid credit growth could "sow the seeds" for future crises, it said.
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