Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) had earlier pegged the output by the country, second largest producer after Brazil, at 26 MT in the October-September (2015-16) period, as against 28.3 million tonnes in the previous year.
Despite estimated 12 per cent fall in production, ISMA said India would have a closing stock of about 7 MT at the end of September.
ISMA's latest projection is lower than the government's estimate of 25.6 MT.
"From the beginning of the current 2015-16 season and till 30th April 2016, sugar mills have produced 24.60 million tonne of sugar, down 11 per cent as compared to 27.60 million tonnes produced in 2014-15 sugar season in the same corresponding period," ISMA said in a statement.
Sugar production in Maharashtra, which is facing a drought like situation, fell by 19 per cent to 8.37 MT in the first 7 months of the marketing year, as against 10.34 MT in the year-ago period.
Uttar Pradesh-based millers have produced 6.8 MT sugar compared with 7.04 MT.
Out of the 48, 35 sugar mills operating are in Tamil Nadu. The other sugar mills are in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Haryana, which may close in next few days.
"Considering the number of sugar mills which are in operation as on 30th April 2016 and cane availability in these States, sugar production in the current season is expected to be just above 25 million tonnes by the end of September 2016," ISMA said.
"However, with the carry forward of 9.08 million tonnes from previous season and estimated domestic consumption of 25.6 million tonnes and exports of 1.5 million tonnes, sugar mills would still have a carryover stocks of 7 million tonnes at the end of the current season," it added.
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