I have no basis to estimate any GDP rate that's different from 7.1%: CSI

Interview with TCA Anant

The effect of demonetisation on economic growth in the current financial year is very complicated and there is not enough evidence so far to gauge it, Chief Statistician TCA Anant tells Indivjal Dhasmana. Edited excerpts: 

Economists have said that the 7.1% growth projected in the advance estimates for the current financial year by the Central Statistics Office is too optimistic. What do you have to say on this?

At the moment this is what we have and I have no other basis to make an assessment on. Wait till some more numbers come and we can make an assessment on them.

What can we sum up from the headline number? Can we conclude that the economy will slow in the current financial year even when the demonetisation impact has not been factored in? 

You have to be careful in your choice of words. Yes, there is a slowdown. There is not enough evidence to say anything about demonetisation, one way or the other. How demonetisation will filter into the whole year's context is a very complicated story. 

Will there be a large variation in the revised advance estimates, which will come at the end of February, vis-a-vis the first advance data?

Only when we have the numbers can we say whether there will be large variations or not.

The Budget, based on these advance estimates, will be tabled on February 1. If there is a huge difference between the first and the revised advance estimates, how will the Budget factor in the new numbers? 

You have to put this question to the finance ministry.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has been shown to have risen over four% in the second half of the current financial year. Is it not a bit surprising with private investment not picking up pace?

There are a number of indicators for GFCF. Some of the indicators are captured in the index of industrial production (IIP) and core sector data, say, for instance, steel production. In a sense, whatever has been done for the second half of the year is on the basis of the available data and projections we have made.

Even in the advance estimates, most of the growth has been shown to be coming from government-induced expenditure and agriculture. Is GFCF also propped up by the government capex only?

These are two separate accounting methods. You can't mix the expenditure and production sides of accounting.