World Cup 2023: Afghanistan, Pakistan chances for semifinals qualification

Afghanistan's chances of qualifying for the semi-final are nearly over after New Zealand beat Sri Lanka by a big margin. Pakistan also have to win by nearly impossible margins to qualify

After the win by New Zealand over Sri Lanka, the chances of Pakistan and Afghanistan's qualification narrowed down and it became almost possible. Pakistan now have to win thier last match against England by at least 287 runs or above if they bat first or chase the target down in 2.5 overs. For Afghanistan, it is almost impossible now as they have to beat South Africa in their next match by 438 runs to take their net run rate over New Zealand. 

Before the New Zealand victory, the scenario was as follows: 

After being hit by Glenn Maxwell's magic in their penultimate match of ICC Cricket World Cup 2023, Afghanistan would be low in confidence and their chances to make it to the semifinal saw a considerable dent.

However, the Afghans are still in the race for a berth in the semifinals if they win their last fixture against South Africa and the results of New Zealand and Pakistan matches go in their favour. 

India, South Africa and Australia have already qualified for the semifinal of ICC World Cup 2023.

Here are semifinal qualification scenarios and chances of Afghanistan:

First of all, Afghanistan need to win their last league match of ICC ODI World Cup against South Africa on Friday (November 10) to keep themselves in the reckoning. 

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If New Zealand lose their match vs Sri Lanka or the game is washed out

The Afghan fans would be hoping that New Zealand should lose their game against Sri Lanka; this will keep Afghanistan and the Kiwis at eight points, with Hashmatullah Shahidi's side having one match in hand.

If the NZ vs SL match gets washed out, then Kiwi would end their league phase at 9 points, giving the likes of Pakistan and Afghanistan a chance to qualify for the semis. In that case, if Afghanistan win their last game and Pakistan fail to overcome England, then the former will make it to the semis.

Check ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 points table here

If New Zealand win

If New Zealand register a win over Sri Lanka, then, Afghans have to win the match against South Africa by big margin.

If New Zealand and Pakistan lose

With three teams being at eight points on the World Cup 2023 points table, Afghanistan can finish 4th on the leaderboard if New Zealand and Pakistan lose their final league fixtures and Shahidi's side wins their last fixture.

If all three teams - Pakistan, New Zealand and Afghanistan -- win their last league fixture, then the 4th semifinalist will be decided by Net Run Rate.

Check ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 full schedule here

Here's how Pakistan can qualify for the semifinals:

Pakistan once again surged in the latter stages of the world cup. 

The Pakistani team will be also hoping that Sri Lanka emerge victorious against New Zealand today and South Africa beat Afghanistan on friday. If that happens and Pakistan win their last league fixture against England then, they will make to the semis by just winning the match.

If New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan win or their respective fixtures:

Then, the 4th semifinalist will be decided on the basis of net run rate.

If New Zealand win and Afghanistan lose their last fixture:

If New Zealand win today's match and Afghanistan lose their match against South Africa, then, before going into the match against England, Pakistan would have to bat first and win the game by big margin to overtake New Zealand on the points table by superior Net Run Rate.