Farm GVA growth slows to 1.2% in second quarter amid uneven rains

The growth of gross value added (GVA) of agriculture and allied sectors slowed to 1.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) at constant prices in the second quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q2FY24) from 3.5 per cent in the previous quarter and 2.5 per cent in the year-ago period, according to the official data released on Thursday.  

This was the lowest GVA growth in constant prices in Q2FY24 among the sectors tracked by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The sector’s GVA growth in current prices, however, fared better at 7.2 per cent.

The sluggish growth in the sector can be attributed to weak harvest activity during July-September and most inputs coming from residual rabi crops.

All eyes will now be on how farm sector growth pans out in the next few quarters, because the first Advance Estimate of 2023 kharif output has projected a 4.52 per cent drop in foodgrain output due to the El Nino-induced uneven monsoon.

Kharif sowing usually takes place during the July-September period while most of the rabi harvest is in the mandis for sale. With the sowing getting delayed due to the late onset of monsoon in 2023, there is little probability of any kharif harvest getting captured in the current data.

The central government, in its first Advanced Estimate for 2023-24 kharif season released in October, had predicted a dismal picture for most crops due to uneven rains. This could have a bearing on GVA numbers for the subsequent quarters and also on rural and agricultural incomes.

The first estimate showed that production of rice, the biggest cereal grown during the kharif season, could drop by 3.79 per cent in the 2023-24 season to 106.31 million tonnes (mt) as compared to 110.5 mt projected in the final estimate of 2022-23 due to uneven monsoon despite a higher than normal acreage.

Not only that, the first Advanced Estimate showed that production of all major kharif crops this year could see a dip, led by moong, urad, soybean and sugarcane.

Earlier, an assessment by the United States Department of Agriculture had said rice production this kharif season might fall by at least 2 million tonnes.

However, an official statement said the area under rice is estimated to be higher by around 0.2 million hectares over the previous year’s final estimate and by around 0.45 million hectares over the average rice area. The statement added that rice production is expected to be higher than the average production of the last few years.

The southwest monsoon this year has been highly uneven and skewed mainly due to the adverse impact of El Nino. The rains arrived late and then didn’t pick up in a big way, leading to almost a 9 per cent shortfall in the month of June.

Then when the monsoon picked up pace, it literally poured, pushing the July rains to surplus of 13 per cent. And then in August, it again went for a big break, leading to a record 36 per cent monsoon deficiency in the month, which is amongst the highest in recent history. Just when the country was getting prepared for drought-like conditions, it started raining in September.

Statistically, the June-September season ended with a deficit of 5.6 per cent, classifying the 2023 monsoon as ‘below normal’, the first in more than four years.