Icra projects India's Q4 growth at 6.9%, FY25 GDP expansion at 6.3%

Icra on Monday projected India's GDP growth at 6.9 per cent in the quarter ended March 31, and at 6.3 per cent for the full 2024-25 fiscal, undershooting the the National Statistics Office (NSO) estimates made in February.

In February, the NSO had projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25. With economic growth in June, September and December quarter at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent respectively.

To achieve the NSO's projected 6.5 per cent growth in FY25, the GDP growth in Q4 or March quarter should be 7.6 per cent. 

The NSO is scheduled to release the provisional estimates of FY'25 GDP and quarterly estimates for Q4 on May 31.

Icra in its note said it projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 FY 2025, from 6.2 per cent in Q3 FY2025, significantly undershooting the NSO implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter.

Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 FY2025, Icra projects a sharp step-down in the full-year GDP expansion to 6.3 per cent in FY2024-25, from 9.2 per cent in FY 2023-24.

Icra Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty.

Services sector exports continued to show double-digit growth, while merchandise exports contracted in YoY terms in Q4 FY2025 after expanding in December quarter.