A lot is at stake in defeat: Odisha bypoll puts key parties to test

With top leaders campaigning, the contest carries weight ahead of 2027 panchayat polls

Over the past fortnight, Odisha’s Nuapada Assembly constituency, where a bypoll is scheduled on Tuesday, saw unprecedented campaigning. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi and Leader of Opposition Naveen Patnaik held roadshows while Union Minister Juel Oram, Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai, Samajwadi Party Chief Akhilesh Yadav, over half of the state Cabinet, and nearly the entire leadership of all major parties canvassed for their respective candidates.

 

This highlights what a crucial role the bypoll — the first since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power, ending Patnaik’s 24-year rule — will play in shaping the state’s political equation ahead of the 2027 panchayat elections.

 

Historically, ruling parties have won nearly two-thirds of the 73 Assembly bypolls held in Odisha since 1955. During its five terms until 2024, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), along with its former ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), lost only three of 12 bypolls.

 

However, the Nuapada bypoll, necessitated by the death of three-time BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, is seen as a key test for the 17-month-old Majhi government as well as BJP’s state chief Manmohan Samal. For the BJD, it is a fight for political survival amid growing internal dissent while the Congress has a rare opportunity to regain ground, said political observers.

 

Dholakia’s son, who defected to the BJP, is pitted against former state minister and senior BJD leader Snehangini Chhuria, and Congress’ tribal leader Ghasiram Majhi.

 

Bordering Chhattisgarh, Nuapada faces persistent challenges of migration, water scarcity, and agrarian distress, particularly among paddy farmers. Two other factors likely to influence the bypoll outcome are the tribal population, which accounts for over 33 per cent of the electorate, and women voters, who form 51 per cent of the constituency.

 

In the runup to the polls, Majhi launched 957 projects worth over ~1,100 crore in Nuapada district, and announced the upgradation of Khariar Road to a municipality, and promised Notified Council Area status for Komna and Sinapali. The BJP also made the minimum support price of ~3,100 per quintal for paddy, on a par with the Chhattisgarh scheme, a key election plank.

 

In September, farmers protested outside the Nuapada sub-collector’s office over fertiliser shortages, echoing a statewide issue that triggered a political blame game and Assembly disruptions.

 

During his rare bypoll roadshow, Patnaik accused the BJP government of “betraying” farmers by failing to ensure affordable fertiliser, and reiterated the word beimani (betrayal) used by his party to attack the BJP candidate for switching sides.

 

Under Majhi government’s Subhadra scheme, 12.4 million eligible women aged 21-60 have so far received the third instalment of ~5,000 each. The scheme, offering ~50,000 over five years, was a key promise in the BJP’s 2024 manifesto, and remains central to its campaign this bypoll as well.

 

The BJD and the Congress, however, have attacked the government over women’s safety, and alleged deterioration in law and order. In September, the Congress moved a no-confidence motion over the issues of women’s safety, and the plight of farmers and tribals, which was rejected by the Speaker.

 

For the BJD, the bypoll is a battle for redemption, said senior journalist Sandip Mishra, adding that the party was trying to overcome the blunders, including perceived bonhomie with the BJP and alleged disregard to Odia sentiments, which led to its defeat in 2024.

 

Cracks within the BJD have become increasingly visible, with senior leaders quitting in protest against the alleged continuing influence of bureaucrat-turned-politician V K Pandian. This is the party’s first major internal dissidence since the 2012 coup plotted by Patnaik’s then Political Advisor Pyarimohan Mohapatra.

 

“It was a mistake for the BJD to field an ailing Patnaik for roadshows,” said columnist Janakish Badapanda, referring to the former chief minister’s recent spinal surgery. “He seemed visibly unwell,” Badapanda added.

 

Both Mishra and Badapanda agree that a strong BJD performance could rekindle hopes of revival before 2029 while a poor showing may deepen the party’s crisis.

 

As for the Congress, once dominant in Odisha, but which has now shrunk to just 14 seats in the Assembly, against the BJP’s 78 and the BJD’s 51, it is a personal test for state unit chief Bhakta Charan Das, said Mishra. The constituency falls under the Kalahandi Lok Sabha seat that he once represented. Congress nominee Ghasiram Majhi had finished second as an Independent candidate in the last election.

 

“The bypoll outcome will not affect the Assembly’s arithmetic, but it is likely to send a strong political signal ahead of the 2027 panchayat and local body elections,” said Badapanda.