Battleground 2024: Next govt to pursue reforms agenda, says Citigroup

Citigroup said simple consolidation of Opposition votes is unlikely to significantly affect electoral outcomes for BJP given its dominant vote share in 2019

Citigroup on Tuesday said it expected the next government to pursue reforms agenda with a focus on infrastructure, manufacturing, and energy sectors, assuming political continuity after the general elections. “We also expect a reinvigorated push towards divestments in key sectors,” it said analysing key areas of policy continuity and changes that the new government might consider.

Drawing inferences from previous election trends, Citigroup said simple consolidation of Opposition votes is unlikely to significantly affect electoral outcomes for the BJP given its dominant vote share in 2019. “The Bharatiya Janata Party’s strength in Hindi heartland is also its weakness given the concentration risk. The big unknowns — relative political uncertainty is highest in four key states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, West Bengal, and Bihar. Our scenario analysis of vote share shifts suggests NDA could comfortably cross the majority mark even in case of a 5 per cent vote share shift away from them. A 7 per cent vote share shift in favour of the National Democratic Alliance will take them past their target of 400 seats,” it said.