Exit polls and the rules governing it in India: All your questions answered

Exit polls in India, regulated by the Election Commission, are surveys conducted after voting but before results are declared, with a prohibition period before elections

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As the curtain falls on the final phase of the Lok Sabha Election 2024 on June 1, India, the world’s largest democracy, anticipates the unveiling of exit polls. These exit polls, eagerly awaited by the people, serve as early indicators of election outcomes, offering insights into potential victors and the margins of their triumph.

The inception of exit polls in India traces back to 1957, during the second Lok Sabha elections, with the pioneering initiative led by the Indian Institute of Public Opinion.

Exit polls, as the name suggests, are conducted after the culmination of the last phase of voting, in accordance with the guidelines set by the Election Commission of India.

Distinguished from opinion polls, which precede elections, exit polls entail surveys administered to voters as they exit polling stations post casting their ballots. These surveys encompass a spectrum of inquiries, delving into voter motivations and party preferences.

Typically, exit polls entail the collection of samples, representing diverse demographics and geographical regions, to gauge public sentiment towards political parties and their performance.

Regulatory framework surrounding exit polls in India
 

1. The Representation of the People’s Act, 1951, under Section 126A, stipulates that exit polls cannot be conducted or disseminated until the final phase of voting concludes.

“No person shall conduct any exit poll and publish or publicise by means of the print or electronic media or disseminate in any other manner, whatsoever, the result of an exit poll during such period as may be notified by the Election Commission in this regard.”
 

2. However, due to widespread interest in identifying the potential victor, contemporary television channels and social media platforms often air premature predictions even before the conclusion of voting. Section 126A also stipulates: “Any person who contravenes the provisions of this section shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to two years or with fine or with both.”
 

3. In previous electoral cycles, the Election Commission specified that television or radio broadcasts should refrain from discussing election-related matters “until such results are formally announced by the Election Commission of India, unless such results are carried with clear disclaimer that they are unofficial or incomplete or partial results or projections which should not be taken as final results.”

4. Another issue arises from the fallibility of exit polls. Notably, during the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections, all exit poll forecasts proved inaccurate except for the Axis My India-India Today poll, which achieved a 95 per cent accuracy rate. Despite such discrepancies, numerous agencies continue to participate in conducting exit polls.

How to check Lok Sabha 2024 exit polls
 

With the culmination of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, exit poll results for 28 states and eight union territories are slated for release from 6.30 pm onwards on June 1, in compliance with Election Commission protocols.

For the latest exit poll predictions and in-depth analysis, readers can turn to business-standard.com, offering comprehensive coverage of the Lok Sabha elections.

How to check Lok Sabha Elections 2024 results live
 

1. Visit the official website of the Election Commission of India: (https://www.eci.gov.in/)

2. Navigate to the 2024 Election Updates Page

3. Access the 2024 Lok Sabha Election results section

4. Select the desired state to access state-wise updates

5. On every seat, there will be a section indicating ‘leading’ and ‘winning’. ‘Leading’ denotes that a particular party and candidate are currently in the lead, with the vote counting process ongoing. Meanwhile, ‘winning’ indicates that the vote counting process for the seat has concluded, and the victor has been declared.