Bangladesh heads to polls on Feb 12: Why the outcome matters for India

Bangladesh votes on February 12 in its first election since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government; the outcome could shape political stability and ties with India

Bangladesh will go to the polls on Thursday, February 12, with nearly 128 million voters across 300 constituencies. This will be the first parliamentary elections since the fall of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024, when massive student-led protests forced her out of power.

 

The polling is scheduled to begin at 7:30 am (local time) on Thursday, while election campaigning will end at 7:30 pm on Tuesday.

 

Bangladesh polls: Main players in the race

 

The contest is largely centred around two major political blocs. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is leading a coalition of 10 parties, while Jamaat-e-Islami (JIB) heads an 11-party alliance. This alliance includes the National Citizen Party, a group formed by students who played a key role in the 2024 anti-Hasina movement.

 

The Awami League, which dominated Bangladeshi politics for decades under Sheikh Hasina, has been barred from contesting the elections.

 

Apart from these alliances, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, which split from the JIB-led bloc and the Jatiya Party, a long-time ally of the Awami League, are contesting independently.

 

Alongside the parliamentary election, Bangladesh will also hold a referendum on the July National Charter, which was signed on October 17, 2025, more than a year after the protests that brought down the Hasina government.   

 

Why the February 12 vote matters for India

 

For India, the election carries major strategic and security implications. Until Sheikh Hasina’s removal, New Delhi viewed Dhaka as a close and reliable partner in South Asia.

 

India is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in Asia. Between April 2023 and March 2024, India exported goods worth $11.1 billion to Bangladesh, including textiles, tea, auto parts, electricity, agricultural products, iron and steel, and plastics. During the same period, India imported goods worth $1.8 billion, mainly readymade garments and leather products, according to an Al Jazeera report.

 

However, India-Bangladesh strained worsened after the Awami League government was toppled on August 5, 2024. Tensions rose further following reports of violence against minorities, particularly the Hindu community.

 

Sheikh Hasina has since been sentenced to 10 years in jail in two separate corruption cases linked to alleged irregularities in land allocation under a government housing project. She fled Bangladesh on August 5, 2024 and has been living in India since then. Earlier, a Bangladeshi court had declared her a fugitive.

 

In response to the deteriorating situation, India last year restricted tourist visas for Bangladeshi citizens and withdrew families of Indian diplomats from Dhaka, citing security concerns ahead of the elections. In April last year, New Delhi also ended a transshipment facility that allowed Bangladeshi export cargo to pass through Indian land customs stations to ports and airports.

 

Security concerns and rising violence

 

Ahead of the polls, India has again asked families of its officials posted in Bangladesh to return home, pointing to the prevailing security situation.

 

Concerns have grown following recent violence, including the killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, a 32-year-old student leader and spokesperson for the radical group Inqilab Mancha. Hadi was linked to the 2024 'July Revolution' and was seen as a potential election candidate.

 

Attacks on the Hindu minority have further strained bilateral ties. A 40-year-old Hindu man, Sarat Chakraborty Mani, was killed last month in Narsingdi near Dhaka after being attacked with sharp weapons, according to Bangladesh-registered newspaper Weeklyblitz. This was the sixth reported killing of a Hindu person in 18 days.

 

Media houses have also been targeted. Bangladesh’s leading daily Prothom Alo was vandalised and set on fire, forcing journalists to flee and suspending both its print and online operations.

 

India’s response, diplomatic engagement

 

India has repeatedly raised concerns over attacks on minorities. Last month, Ministry of External Affairs Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, “We continue to witness a disturbing pattern of recurring attacks on minorities as well as their homes and businesses by extremists.”

 

Signs of strain have also appeared in other areas. Last month, the Bangladesh Cricket Board requested that all of its ICC Men’s T20 World Cup matches scheduled in India be shifted to Sri Lanka.

 

In the Union Budget presented on February 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman halved India’s funding allocation for Bangladesh to ₹60 crore for FY27, down from ₹120 crore the previous year.   

 

A cautious attempt to reset ties

 

Despite the tensions, diplomatic channels remain open. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and interim leader Muhammad Yunus met for the first time on the sidelines of a BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok in April last year.

 

India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said PM Modi had “reiterated India’s support for a democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh".

 

Last month, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar extended his good wishes to Bangladesh ahead of its elections. “We hope that once things settle down, the sense of neighbourliness in this region will grow,” he said.

 

In early January, Jaishankar travelled to Dhaka to attend the funeral of former Bangladesh prime minister and BNP leader Khaleda Zia.

 

With elections approaching, India and other foreign missions continue to reassess security arrangements, closely watching how the February 12 vote unfolds.

 

(With agency inputs)