Paying in dollars soon? What rupee near 90 a dollar changes for your budget

If you have an upcoming payment in US dollars — tuition or exam fees, overseas travel, a gadget order, a work subscription, or a visa-related charge — the rupee’s recent move now shows up directly in your outgo. It changes the rupee amount you will need to set aside, and it changes how much buffer you should carry if your payment date is fixed.

 

A Business Standard poll of market participants suggests the rupee could settle around 90 per dollar by December-end, after depreciating 4.1 per cent so far in calendar year 2025 (CY25). Most respondents also expect the currency to appreciate to around 88.50 by FY26-end (March-end).

 

For planning, the split matters. Near-term levels determine the cost of payments due now. Longer-term expectations do not help if your fee deadline is in the next few weeks.

 

What has changed?

 

The poll comes amid sharp moves in the currency. The rupee has depreciated 4.3 per cent so far in FY26, and the report notes it breached 91 per dollar in the previous week.

 

After a volatile stretch in which the rupee hit fresh lows for four consecutive sessions, it ended the week about 1.3 per cent stronger against the dollar, which the report attributes to intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). It oscillated between 91.08 and 89.25, and then strengthened 1.1 per cent to settle at 89.29 in the final hour of trade on Friday, compared with 90.26 in the previous session.

 

Market participants told Business Standard the RBI’s move was aimed at flushing out speculative positions and triggering panic among traders who were long dollars and short on the rupee.

 

The single budgeting rule that helps most 

Treat 90 per dollar as a planning anchor for near-term payments, and build a buffer around it. A simple rule-of-thumb: 

•         Every Re 1 move in the US dollar-rupee (USD-INR) rate changes your rupee cost by Rs 1,000 for every $1,000. For example, if your payment is $3,000, a Re 1 move changes the rupee cost by Rs 3,000. 

This converts “the rupee is swinging” into a number you can budget for.

 

Quick calculator: What the same dollar bill looks like at 88.50, 90, and 91

 

These levels are referenced directly or indirectly in the report (88.50 as an FY26 expectation, 90 as the December-end anchor, and 91 as a level the rupee breached recently). The table below shows what that difference means for common payment sizes.

 

	@88.50	@90	@91
$500	Rs 44,250	Rs 45,000	Rs 45,500
$2,000	Rs 1.77 lakh	Rs 1.80 lakh	Rs 1.82 lakh
$10,000	Rs 8.85 lakh	Rs 9 lakh	Rs 9.10 lakh

 

If you are paying in dollars soon, plan for a range you can fund.

 

What the poll says about the next few months

 

The poll table shows a cluster around 90 for December-end, but meaningful dispersion for March-end (FY26-end). A few examples:

 

•         Standard Chartered: 90 (December-end), 89.5 (March-end)

•         IDFC First Bank: 89.50–90 (December-end), 88.5 (March-end)

•         CR Forex: 89.80–90.20 (December-end), 88.80–89.20 (March-end)

•         RBL Bank: 91 (December-end), 92–93 (March-end)

•         Bank of Baroda: 89.5–90 (December-end), 90–91 (March-end)

 

That spread matters for budgeting. If your deadline is in January or February, your exposure is different from someone paying in late March — even if both are paying within the same financial year.

 

Why RBI actions matter, but do not eliminate risk

 

Two points matter if you are not a trader. First, the RBI is signalling it does not want a one-way slide. Market participants said the central bank’s dollar sales signalled it would not tolerate a “one-way depreciation” narrative, helping curb speculative positioning and restore two-way risk. And second, intervention has constraints. The RBI’s scope to intervene may be limited due to its large short positions in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) and onshore forward markets, which could lead it to unwind some positions around 88.80 to preserve room for future action.

 

Forward-market data estimates the RBI intervened nearly $30 billion between June and October — $18 billion during June–September and $10 billion in October. The central bank’s short dollar forward positions rose to $63 billion by the end of October, from $59 billion at the end of September. In October, the RBI had been steadily supplying dollars to prevent the rupee from weakening beyond 88.80.

 

For budgeting, assume a range. The RBI may lean against extreme moves, but your payment plan should still allow for volatility — especially if your payment date is fixed.

 

A simple payment plan based on when your dollars are due

 

This is a budgeting framework to reduce unpleasant surprises. If your payment is due in the next 2-6 weeks

 

•         Budget using 90 per dollar as the anchor.

•         Add a buffer of at least Re 1–Rs 2 on the rate for your rupee set-aside if you cannot change the payment date.

•         If the payment is large, consider splitting timing where feasible (for example, a partial payment now and the rest closer to the deadline), so you do not concentrate all risk on one day’s rate.

 

If your payment is due closer to March-end

 

•         Use the poll’s March-end range as context, but plan around uncertainty: the table includes outcomes around 88 and 90–91, depending on the institution.

•         Track the next few prints the report highlights as drivers (see “What to watch” below), rather than reacting to daily moves.

 

Fees and “hidden” costs that can matter as much as the headline rate

 

For many, the exchange rate is only part of the bill. Your final rupee cost can change based on the payment rail.

 

Before paying, confirm:

 

•         Whether your card or bank applies a foreign exchange markup, and whether tax is applied on that markup.

•         Whether the merchant prompts dynamic currency conversion (paying in rupees instead of dollars at the merchant’s rate). If you are offered a choice at checkout, the cleaner comparison is usually to pay in the transaction currency and let your card or bank apply its conversion — then compare what you are being charged.

•         Whether your transfer method adds a fixed fee or a spread that is not obvious in the headline rate.

This is not about optimising the last rupee. It is about avoiding avoidable surprises.

 

What to watch next

 

The following macro drivers matter for direction and volatility:

 

•         Flows: The flow picture is “grim”, with foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows still elusive.

•         Trade deficit: Even as the deficit narrowed in November, it remained higher than expected in recent months.

•         Trade deal with the United States: There have been delays in firming up a trade deal with the US. A deal could improve sentiment and reduce risks to the FY27 current account deficit (CAD) outlook.

•         Seasonal fourth quarter (Q4) support: Seasonal factors could support the rupee in Q4, when the trade deficit tends to narrow and the balance of payments tends to be in surplus.

 

These factors could provide a firm floor for the rupee around 88 per dollar, with the currency likely to remain rangebound.

 

For anyone paying in dollars soon

 

The poll’s “around 90 by December-end” is best treated as a near-term budgeting anchor, not a certainty. The most useful step is to translate that anchor into a rupee range for your own payment size, add a buffer that fits your deadline, and account for fees and markups that can shift the final bill.