Goldman Sachs sees rupee weakness capped after RBI's steps to boost inflows

By Subhadip Sircar

 

The Indian rupee’s slide may be nearing a floor after authorities unveiled measures to boost foreign inflows, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

 

The steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India and the government “should limit the depreciation pressure on the rupee,” Goldman analysts including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a note. “We envisage a plateau in the dollar/rupee cross rate.” 

 

Friday’s measures include tax exemption on foreign investments in government securities, opening up more debt categories for full foreign investor access, and exemptions for banks raising foreign-currency bonds and deposits. The steps may draw as much as $50 billion in inflows, according to some analysts.

 

Goldman’s comments hold significance as the rupee fell to a new low of 96.9650 per dollar last month amid a surge in global crude prices and record overseas outflows from equities. The weakness has led some analysts to speculate that the currency may decline further to 100 per dollar.  

 

The Wall Street bank now sees the dollar/rupee cross at 96 in three months, from 97 previously. It kept its six-month forecast unchanged at 96, while seeing the currency at 97 in 12 months, from 96 previously. The rupee fell as much as 0.4% to 95.36 Monday, after gaining the most in over two months Friday.

 

“To be clear, we do not expect substantial spot appreciation either,” Trivedi said. “The rupee depreciation is not out of line with other key energy importing currencies in the region, and we expect that any renewed capital inflows should and will be used to rebuild the reserve buffer and unwind the short forward book.”

 

The rupee’s carry has increased since the outbreak of the Iran conflict and is higher than other Asian high-yielders, including the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso, according to Goldman. 

 

The currency is now among the more undervalued emerging market currencies versus the dollar among the higher carry complex, it said, adding that there is a growing case for adding rupee back into diversified carry baskets.