Germany election results: What they mean for immigrants and migration

The Conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have won Germany’s national election, paving the way for their leader, Friedrich Merz, to become the country’s next Chancellor.

 

Provisional results show the CDU/CSU bloc securing 28.6% of the vote, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to second place with 20.8%. The Centre-Left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which led the outgoing government under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, saw its support plummet to 16.4%, a significant drop from its 2021 victory.

 

Merz on migration and the economy

 

Merz had placed immigration and economic policy at the centre of his campaign, warning that failure to address these issues could push Germany further towards right-wing populism.

 

“In the next four years we must solve two big problems for this country: migration and the economy,” said Merz. “Otherwise, we will definitively slide into right-wing populism.”

 

Tighter immigration policies expected under Merz

 

Merz has pledged to tighten immigration controls, introducing a five-point plan that includes stricter border checks, entry bans for undocumented migrants, and accelerated deportations. Some of these proposals could face legal challenges under European Union law.

 

The plan includes:

 

1. Border controls and rejections: Refugees without visas or valid residence permits will be turned away at Germany’s borders.

2. Entry bans for rejected asylum seekers: Those denied asylum will be prohibited from re-entering Germany.

3. Detention for delinquent asylum seekers: Asylum seekers convicted of crimes will be detained until deportation.

4. Daily deportations: The number of deportations will increase significantly and be carried out at a faster rate.

5. Restrictions on family reunification: Beneficiaries of subsidiary protection, including many Syrians, will no longer be able to bring their families to Germany.

 

What does this mean for migrants in Germany?

 

Family reunification will become more difficult: Those under subsidiary protection will face greater hurdles in bringing family members.

Refugees may be turned away at borders: People coming from safe third countries, such as Austria or Italy, may no longer be eligible for asylum in Germany.

Dual citizenship could be affected: The CDU and AfD propose that migrants who commit crimes could lose their German citizenship.

Labour migration remains the primary route: Those wanting to move to Germany will need to secure work or study opportunities.

 

However, not many Indians may be affected by this. In 2023, Germany received over one million first-time asylum applications, primarily from Syria, Afghanistan, and Turkey. Applications from Indian nationals dropped by 67.3% compared to the previous year.

 

“Among the 30 most common citizenships of first-time asylum applicants in the EU in 2023, the number of asylum seekers increased for 21 of them. The largest increases were observed for Syrians (51,245 more applications), followed by Turks (41,370 more), Colombians (19,595 more) and Venezuelans (17,035 more). In contrast, the number of asylum seekers decreased the most among citizens of India (17,400 fewer), Afghanistan (12,915 fewer) and Ukraine (12,070 fewer),” according to official EU data.

 

Currently, over 200,000 Indian nationals reside in Germany, with most holding regular residence permits rather than asylum status. Skilled Indian workers continue to form a key part of Germany’s workforce, particularly in sectors facing labour shortages.

 

Germany’s economy, with an ageing population, is expected to need nearly 288,000 immigrants annually until 2040, according to a study by Bertelsmann Stiftung. Even with increased domestic workforce participation, immigration remains crucial. Without additional measures, the number could rise to 368,000 annually to prevent labour shortages.

 

To address this, Germany plans to issue 10% more professional visas in 2024. The government confirmed on November 17, 2024 that it will issue 200,000 professional visas in 2025, including 90,000 for Indian skilled workers—an increase from the previous cap of 20,000.

 

Official data from the Federal Labour Ministry shows a steady increase in skilled Indian workers in Germany. As of February 2025, 137,000 Indians hold skilled positions, compared to just 23,000 in 2015.