IMD forecasts colder winter across India this year due to La Nina

The winter chill has already begun in northern India, even though the season hasn't officially arrived. IMD says La Niña could bring a colder-than-usual winter to many parts of the country

Northern India is already feeling a pre-Diwali winter vibe. Parts of Delhi-NCR, including Noida, Ghaziabad, and Gurgaon, have been waking up to light fog in the mornings. Winter isn’t officially here yet, though the retreating monsoon may still bring a few showers in the coming week.

 

The cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific indicates evolving La Niña conditions — a key factor behind the current weather trends and the upcoming winter pattern. But what is La Niña, and how does it affect India?

What is La Niña?

La Niña is part of a larger climate pattern called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), often referred to as its “cold phase.” It occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become cooler than usual, influencing atmospheric patterns worldwide.

 

The ENSO cycle has three phases — warm (El Niño), cool (La Niña), and neutral — which shift every two to seven years. These changes in ocean temperature and air pressure affect global weather patterns, influencing rainfall, storms, and temperature across different regions.

How does La Nina affect parts of India?

According to scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), La Niña could bring a colder winter to several parts of India, especially the northern regions. In hilly areas, this may mean more snowfall and frequent cold waves.

 

The IMD has also forecast above-normal rainfall for most of the country in October — about 115 per cent of the average 75.4 mm.

 

During the La Niña phase, stronger-than-usual winds push warm water toward the western Pacific, making the central and eastern regions, including India, cooler. This shift often leads to lower temperatures and increased rainfall.

 

“We can expect La Nina conditions to set in during the next few months. A detailed temperature outlook for the post-monsoon season will be issued soon,” said M Mohapatra, Director General, IMD. 

What about other parts of India impacted by La Nina?

It is also anticipated that the northeast monsoon season (October to December) would be wetter than normal, particularly across Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and the surrounding areas, where rainfall may exceed 112 per cent of the average.

 

On the other hand, areas of central India may enjoy drier and crisper air, while the southern peninsula, which usually stays moderate, may see an unusual drop in minimum temperatures. 

 

In general, a colder winter would result in greater disparities between day and nighttime temperatures, a more pronounced chill in larger regions of the nation, and a longer and more intense season than typical. 

 

The unexpected rain and early snow were the result of multiple meteorological systems interacting as La Nina has not set in yet, according to Skymet Meteorological's VP (Meteorology & Climate Change), Mahesh Palawat.

IMD weather forecast Oct 2025

As temperatures in Delhi continue to decline, air pollution levels are gradually increasing. The "moderate" designation was assigned to the air quality in the nation's capital.

 

With snow already covering the higher parts of Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir, India is predicted to experience the winter season earlier than usual this year. In recent days, the temperature has also dropped significantly in Delhi and several areas of the northern plains. 

 

The coolness in the air was witnessed by moderate to severe rainfall in the Jammu and Kashmir plains and snowfall in Srinagar last week, which came much earlier than expected. 

 

Rainstorms battered the lower regions of the state, but snowfall persisted throughout the week in higher-altitude Himachal Pradesh. Consequently, there was a discernible decrease in the temperature across Punjab and Himachal.