Law, identity, and the 2026 Assam mandate amid Sarma's reform pitch

Report looks at how the Sarma government's pitch for reform and transparency through three key decisions could open wounds in the state right before it goes to the polls

With a few months to go for the Assembly elections in Assam, three decisions of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)-government are likely to feature as major emotionally-charged issues: The criminalisation of polygamy, an aggressive crackdown on child marriage, and the long-delayed decision to table the Nellie massacre inquiry reports in the Assembly. 

Each carries its own historical weight, and together, they outline an election that could be shaped less by economic promises and more by identity, legality and the politics of remembrance. 

UCC aspirations 

The Himanta Biswa Sarma-led government’s most assertive legislative move has been criminalising polygamy, pitching it as gender reform and a step towards unifying personal laws in the state. The Chief Minister has repeatedly indicated that if re-elected, his government will bring out a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) — effectively turning the 2026 polls into a referendum on the reordering of personal law. 

Critics argue the polygamy law’s enforcement may fall unevenly across communities, particularly minorities. Exemptions in the Constitution’s Sixth Schedule and tribal-governed areas also complicate the administrative desire for uniformity. What emerges is not just a legal reform but a political signal, interpreted by some as firm leadership and by others as selective intrusion into tradition. 

Not a child’s play 

The other big socio-cultural topic of discourse in Assam is the intensified campaign against child marriage, marked by large-scale arrests. 

The state has had a long struggle against early marriage and teenage pregnancy, especially in rural and riverine belts. Data from the National Family Health Survey 4 (NFHS-4) shows that 31.8 per cent of women in the age group of 20-24 years in the state were married before 18, with the figure touching 40-55 per cent in districts like Dhubri, South Salmara, Barpeta, and Nagaon. 

The ruling government has cited these numbers to justify its urgency, while critics have argued that the crackdown has outpaced counselling. This, they add, has triggered fear, stigma and uncertainty in vulnerable households. 

Battling the past 

Where the criminalisation of polygamy and the crackdown on child marriage reimagine the future of Assamese social norms, the Sarma government’s decision to table the inquiry documents related to the 1983 Nellie massacre pull the state back into its past.   

While the Tewary Commission report was officially submitted to the then-state government in 1984, the Mehta Commission’s findings were never formally accepted or tabled, and have existed largely in the realm of archival references and academic discussions. The former contains details of administrative failures, collapse of preventive policing and intelligence oversight; the latter, on the other hand, contains warnings about the sharpening of communal cleavages arising from electoral participation without a consensus on citizenship.   

For survivors, the concern is more elemental: Justice could again become a narrative, not a resolution. 

How the three could shape 2026 

What makes the upcoming election particularly unpredictable is the simultaneity of these issues. Few states are asked to reconsider family structures, redefine adolescent autonomy and reopen the wounds of a major communal tragedy at the same time. Developmental promises will share space with moral positions, and the UCC could become the election’s defining proposition. 

“In my view, a ban on polygamy or the tabling of inquiry reports will add to a political narrative bringing contestations at different levels, but they will not determine the 2026 mandate. What will matter are the government’s developmental interventions like construction of rural roads and that series of populist measures such the Dr Bani Kanta Kakati Merit Award that provides two-wheelers to meritorious students. These initiatives carry more electoral weight than the polarising narratives built around minority-targeted issues,” said Akhil Ranjan Dutta, professor at the Gauhati University’s political science department. 

He added that the tabling of the reports is unlikely to directly aid the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) attempt to beat anti-incumbency. What may matter more, he argued, is the party’s extensive organisational machinery, and how the opposition parties generate grassroots support and build credible electoral strategies. 

Political commentator Gaurav Gautam Saha said: “While the incident (the Nellie massacre) happened when Assam was under President's Rule, the fact that the BJP-led state government took the initiative to table it in the Assembly last month, might help consolidate the BJP vote base further.” 

What needs to be seen now is how these legislative shifts intersect with BJP’s electoral strategy. The party appears to be framing social law interventions as markers of decisive governance, but the political impact is not uniform. While segments of its core base may view the polygamy ban and the child-marriage crackdown as firm administrative action, other communities perceive them as targeted. 

The decision to bring the Nellie inquiry documents into the legislative frame also cuts both ways: It allows the BJP to differentiate itself from previous governments that kept the reports sealed, yet carries the risk of reopening unresolved communal anxieties. Collectively, these moves give the party an image boost based on reform and transparency, but they also introduce uncertainty — potentially consolidating supporters in some districts while alienating others in regions where identity concerns are more pronounced. 

The coming months will determine whether Assam’s electorate reads the government’s agenda as social correction or recalibration. Reform is power; so is memory. In 2026, Assam will decide which one takes precedence.