Sugar production to hit by weather, export prospects dwindle: Isma

Sugarcane yields in India are declining due to last year's drought and this year's excessive rains, which could reduce the country's sugar production below consumption levels for the first time in eight years, farmers and industry officials said on Monday.

Lower-than-expected output by the world's second-largest sugar producer could eliminate the possibility of India allowing exports in the current season ending in September 2025, supporting global sugar prices.

Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh account for more than 80% of the country's total sugar production, with lower cane yields in these states prompting trade houses to reduce their output estimates for the 2024/25 season.

The production could fall to around 27 million metric tons from the last year's 32 million tons and below annual consumption of more than 29 million tons, said India head of a global trade house, who declined to be named.

"During the summer months, the cane crop faced prolonged stress due to the lack of water," B.B. Thombare, president of the West Indian Sugar Mills Association told Reuters.

"When the monsoon season began, there was excessive rainfall and limited sunshine, which also adversely affected the crop's growth."

The adverse weather curtailed cane yields by 10 to 15 tons per hectare, Thombare said.

The western state of Maharashtra and neighbouring Karnataka, which together produce nearly half of India's sugar, received lower-than-average rainfall in 2023, bringing down reservoir levels.

"Usually, we harvest 120 to 130 tons of cane from one hectare of land, but this year yields have fallen to 80 tons despite all our efforts," says Shrikant Ingle, who cultivated cane on five acres of land in Maharashtra's Solapur.

Drought did not affect the crop in Uttar Pradesh, the country's leading sugar-producing state in the north.

However, plantations in the state were impacted by red rot disease, which reduced sugarcane yields, said a senior state government official.

"To control the spread of the disease, we are advising farmers to adopt new cane varieties," the official said.

The downward revision in the production estimate has eliminated the possibility of any exports in the current season, the head of the trade house said.

Sugar industry seeks 2 million tons of exports, while the government says it may allow limited exports, if any surplus remains after ethanol needs are met.