NITI Aayog works out road map to meet India's rising energy demand

This initiative also arises from India's need for a clear pathway to identify data trajectories in its net-zero exercise

To meet increasing energy demand as India aspires to be a developed nation, the NITI Aayog is working out a road map  till 2070 to reduce emission and increase the penetration of clean energy across various sectors, including mobility, agriculture, industry, cooking, and power, according to three senior government officials.

 

This initiative arises from India’s need for a pathway to identify data trajectories in its net-zero exercise.

 

“It is essential to integrate renewable and fossil-fuel energy into the system,” one of the officials said.

 

In anticipation of the latest projections, the NITI Aayog is monitoring these changing trends. As energy demand is projected to increase three to four times, meeting this in a sustainable manner, primarily through clean energy, is a priority, the official added.

In doing so, the Aayog is redesigning its India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) model, which assesses the comprehensive impact of green-energy policies, extending the analysis beyond 2047 to 2070.

 

“Originally, the energy model was developed for 2047 but we are now upgrading it up to 2070. This will be a bottomup model,” the first official said.

 

The model aims to balance both supply and demand. In the case of mismatches, it adjusts by considering energy exports or imports.

 

The model encompasses supply sectors like power, renewable energy, and bioenergy, as well as demand sectors including mobility, agriculture, industry, and cooking. The industrial sector accounts for the largest share of energy demand.

 

“All demand and supply sectors, along with their activities, are being mapped out for the periods up to 2047 and 2070,” the official added.

 

Using broad macroeconomic trajectories and variable factors, the methodology has assisted the NITI Aayog in identifying targets for Viksit Bharat, with the ultimate goal of achieving GDP (gross domestic product) of $30 trillion by 2047. One notable assessment from the model predicts that India’s population will stabilise at approximately 1.65 billion by 2047.

 

The modelling framework has also been instrumental in helping the Aayog identify data trajectories for the net-zero exercise.

Different sectors, including industry, steel, and aluminium, have distinct demands for resources like electricity, gas, and liquefied petroleum gas. These demands are calculated using models and are aggregated to understand requirements. To meet these needs, various energy sources, including thermal and nuclear power, are being explored, and the fuel requirements for transportation, especially petroleum products, are being assessed, according to the first official.

 

The planning process within the model aims to identify the maximum potential for integrating clean or non-fossil energy into the system. However, cost considerations are also important; therefore, the tools provide insights into the overall investment needed for a transition to clean energy, the official added.

 

“There are new technologies and evolving national priorities influencing the path forward, along with the investment required for sustainability in each sector. While many ideas have proven effective, others — such as shifting cargo transport from roads to rail — have not progressed as quickly as anticipated,” a third official said.

 

“Once the revamped model is available, users will be able to interact with the tool to create their own net-zero pathways. We are taking a much more detailed look at niche sectors in terms of their realistic potential contribution to net-zero goals. Sectors such as mobility and agriculture are receiving special attention in India’s green transition,” said a second government official.

 

The macroeconomic modelling framework was launched in 2014 and has been revised twice, with the most recent update being in 2023.

 

A decision regarding timelines and numerical targets will be determined by the relevant ministries and top authorities. “Currently we are working on a detailed road map, and we have data organised in five-year intervals. The proposals that enter the public domain need to be decided upon,” the first official said, when asked if energy targets would be released and policies would be implemented in phases.

 

At present, nine working groups formed by the Aayog, which include original equipment manufacturers, academic institutions, and industry associations, are deliberating the modelling outcomes and the net-zero pathway. The updated pathway and model are expected to be released in approximately two months, the official said.