Retail sector projected to nearly double to $1.93 trn by 2030: Report

India's retail sector is projected to nearly double to $1.93 trillion by 2030, growing at a 10 per cent CAGR, with the momentum anchored by a deep home market that acts as a buffer against global trade volatility, according to a Deloitte-FICCI report.

The country's retail and consumer landscape is undergoing a transformation, powered by robust domestic consumption alongside a surge in digital adoption, premiumisation and the rapid rise of e-commerce across both urban and emerging markets, it said.

As per the report titled 'Spotting India's PRIME Innovation Moment', India's retail sector was valued at $1.06 trillion in 2024, and the rising purchasing power, including Gen Z's direct spending capacity of $250 billion, is not only sustaining domestic demand but also fuelling brand confidence to scale internationally.

Evolving Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and tariff realignments are further enhancing India's export competitiveness, allowing 'Made in India' products to reach new markets with reduced barriers and cost advantages, Deloitte said in a statement.

India's FMCG and retail sectors are entering a transformative decade, amplified by a digital-first, premium-yet-inclusive consumption wave, the rapid expansion of quick commerce and the explosive growth of direct-to-consumer (D2C) brands, it noted.

"India's consumer ecosystem is entering a defining decade, fuelled by a young, digitally fluent population, an expanding middle class and the rising economic influence of Tier II and III cities, which now account for over 60 per cent of e-commerce transactions," Deloitte South Asia, Partner & Consumer Industry Leader, Anand Ramanathan said.

In the current environment of evolving tariff realignments and expanding FTAs, India's deep domestic consumption base not only sustains growth at home but also creates a strong springboard for global competitiveness, positioning Indian products to capture new market share overseas, he added.

The next wave of growth will be driven less by distribution expansion and more by the ability of FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), retail, and e-commerce players to anticipate and respond to shifting consumer behaviours, regional nuances and the demand for purpose-led innovation, Ramanathan noted.

"With decisive action and strategic foresight, India can double its retail market to nearly $1.9 trillion by 2030 while setting global benchmarks for resilience, innovation and sustainability in the consumer sector," he said.

According to the report, online marketplaces now influence 73 per cent of purchase decisions, with YouTube reviews (40 per cent) and peer recommendations (51 per cent) emerging as trusted alternatives to traditional influencer marketing.

India's D2C market crossed $80 billion in 2024 and is on track to exceed $100 billion in 2025, redefining how brands scale and connect with consumers, it added.

The report also pointed out that 'Made in India' has earned consumer trust, with the preference for locally-made products strengthening, as 68 per cent of consumers favoured Indian brands in food and beverages, 55 per cent in home decor and 53 per cent in personal care.

Quick commerce has transformed market access as India is the world's first scaled quick-commerce market, operating in over 80 cities and growing at a 70-80 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), the report said.

Tier II & III cities are powering omni-channel growth with over 60 per cent of e-commerce transactions now originating from Tier II and III cities, the report said, adding that it signalled a retail shift beyond metros.

Malls and high-street spaces are evolving into experiential hubs, while cities such as Bengaluru and Hyderabad accounted for 60 per cent of total retail space absorption in 2024, it added.