Cautious optimism prevails: market awaits PMI data and Fed speech for direction

The Indian equities market is likely to see a cautiously positive week ahead, with the Nifty maintaining support above important moving averages. A key resistance level to watch is around 25,500, and a strong breakout beyond this level could open the path to retesting recent highs near 25,669. On the downside, immediate support lies near 25,000, which should act as a solid floor for the index. Market momentum is supported by the recent US Federal Reserve rate cut, improving earnings expectations, and progress in India-US trade negotiations. However, volatility may persist amid continued foreign fund movements, upcoming IPOs, and global cues. A prudent approach would be to look for buying opportunities on dips, while staying alert to any sudden market shifts.

The coming week holds several key economic releases for India that could influence market sentiment. On Tuesday, September 23rd, HSBC will be unveiling its Composite, Manufacturing, and Services PMI Flash estimates for September at 10:30 AM, offering fresh insights into business activity across major sectors.

HSBC India Composite PMI rose to 63.2 in August 2025, up from 61.1 in July and marking a 17-year high, despite coming in below the flash estimate of 65.2.

The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 59.3 in August 2025 from 59.1 in July, but was revised lower from initial estimates of 59.8.

The HSBC India Services PMI was revised lower to 62.5 in August 2025, down from the preliminary estimate of 65.6.

Global Cues:

The upcoming week in the US is packed with market-moving events and data releases. It kicks off on Tuesday night with a closely watched speech by the Federal Reserve Chair Powell at 10:05 PM, potentially setting the tone for monetary policy expectations.

By Thursday, market participants will parse fresh reports on durable goods orders, final second quarter GDP growth, and existing home sales from 6:00 PM onwards, painting a detailed picture of economic momentum.

The week rounds out on Friday evening with important updates on inflation and consumer health, including the Core PCE Price Index, personal income, and personal spending figures for Augustall released at 6:00 PM. These releases will help investors gauge US growth, demand, and inflation trends, potentially influencing global market sentiment.

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