Southwest monsoon rainfall most likely to be above normal at 105% of Long Period Average

Ministry of Earth Sciences stated in a latest update that the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm. Currently, Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. However, the atmospheric Circulation features are similar to La Nina conditions. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the Neutral ENSO condition are likely to continue during the monsoon season. The snow cover areas of northern hemisphere and Eurasia during the last three months (January to March, 2025) were below normal. The winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has in general an inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall. IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2025.

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