Feb 2026 auto sales preview: Nomura, MOFSL see solid growth across PVs, 2Ws

Brokerages expect strong Feb 2026 auto sales across PVs, 2Ws, CVs and tractors. Find out what Nomura and MOFSL expect from growth estimates and top stock picks

Feb 2026 auto sales preview: India's automobile manufacturers could see a robust sales growth across segments in February 2026, supported by healthy rural demand, replacement buying in commercial vehicles, and continued traction in passenger vehicles (including electric vehicles). 

Preview reports by brokerages suggest that on-ground retail demand, which picked up after the government cut goods and services tax (GST) on automobiles in September 2025, has continued well into February 2026. 

  Demand, they said, is expected to be led by improved consumer sentiment, which has, in turn, been driven by improved affordability. 

  Global brokerage Nomura, for instance, expects passenger vehicle (PV) wholesales to rise 12 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in February, two-wheelers (2Ws) to surge 33 per cent, medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCVs) to grow 28 per cent, and tractors to expand 29 per cent. 

  "Auto volumes are likely to remain on a firm footing in February, with momentum sustained across key segments," Nomura said. 

Ahead of the monthly auto sales numbers, the Nifty Auto index was hovering near its record high level of 29,179.10 which it touched January 5, 2026.

  The index gained 0.5 per cent in the intraday trade today and was up 0.22 per cent at 12:46 PM. By comparison, the Nifty50 index was down 0.15 per cent at the same time. 

  Auto companies will report monthly sales numbers on March 1 and 2.

 

Passenger vehicles: double-digit growth intact

In PVs, Nomura estimates industry volumes of about 422,000 units, up 12 per cent year-on-year. Retail trends, it said, have been stronger, with February registrations up 22 per cent on-year, indicating that underlying demand remains healthy. 

Among companies, Nomura expects Maruti Suzuki to report domestic PV sales of around 166,000 units, up 3 per cent year-on-year. In contrast, Mahindra & Mahindra's utility vehicle volumes are seen rising 19 per cent to roughly 60,000 units, aided by new launches and lean channel inventory. 

  Tata Motors' PV arm could post a sharp 34.5 per cent jump to nearly 66,000 units, while Hyundai Motor India is projected to grow 9 per cent overall, supported by export strength.

  Nomura has 'Buy' ratings on M&M and Hyundai Motor India.

  Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL), meanwhile, expects PV growth to remain healthy this month, though it flagged rising competitive intensity and commodity costs as key monitorables. 

  The brokerage believes OEMs have so far been "calibrated in their pricing actions," but margin protection may require further hikes if input pressures persist.

  "In PVs, we expect M&M (61,008 units) and Tata Motors PV (67,205 units) to continue to outperform industry growth in February 2026. We, however, expect Maruti Suzuki India's sales (2,24,066 units) to be capped by capacity constraints even as demand for its SUVs continues to be healthy, along with a very strong momentum visible in exports. For Hyundai Motor India (66,654 units), wholesales are likely to be driven by strong demand for the new Venue and robust exports," it said. 

  Overall, the brokerage expects the four listed PV players to post aggregate growth of 18 per cent Y-o-Y in dispatches, largely in line with retail growth.

 

Two-wheelers: rural tailwinds, EV traction

In the 2W segment, Nomura forecasts a 33 per cent industry growth in wholesales, with rural demand and premiumisation trends driving recovery from last year's weak base.  

"Momentum in the 2W industry remains firm, led by healthy rural sentiment," it noted.

  Company-wise, Hero MotoCorp's volumes are pegged at about 530,000 units, up 37 per cent year-on-year. Bajaj Auto could see total volumes rise 31 per cent, helped by strong domestic 2W growth and a sharp jump in three-wheeler exports. TVS Motor Company is expected to post 26 per cent overall growth, with domestic volumes up nearly 40 per cent.

  Electric two-wheelers, Nomura said, continue to gain share with February EV registrations reaching about 108,000 units so far, up 42 per cent year-on-year. This accounts for roughly 6.4 per cent of industry volumes. TVS remains the market leader in e-2Ws, followed by Bajaj Auto, and Ather.

  Nomura's top picks in the 2W and EV space include TVS Motor and Ather Energy, while MOSL also remains constructive on companies with premium and export exposure.

  The latter expects the four listed 2W OEMs to post aggregate 25 per cent Y-o-Y growth in February, led by Hero Moto (up 28.2 per cent), TVS Motor (24.6 per cent), and Bajaj Auto (23.5 per cent). 

 

Commercial vehicles and tractors: upcycle intact

In MHCVs, Nomura expects 28 per cent growth, supported by stable freight rates and replacement demand. It projects volumes at Ashok Leyland to grow 26 per cent and at Tata Motors' CV division by 33 per cent. The brokerage believes Tata Motors CV will remain a key beneficiary of the CV upcycle. 

Tractor sales are estimated to rise 29 per cent year-on-year, reflecting healthy rural cash flows, though both the brokerages caution that a high base and weather-related risks could temper momentum later in the year.

  Overall, while demand trends remain favourable across segments, rising commodity costs and pricing actions will be closely tracked.

  "We expect the two listed players (Ashok Leyland & M&M) to post healthy 39 per cent Y-o-Y volume growth in February," MOFSL said.

 

Best auto stocks to buy: MOFSL, Nomura stock picks

Analysts anticipate demand momentum to continue for most auto segments in February, aided by pickup in demand, and inventory levels staying lean. Motilal Oswal has picked Maruti Suzuki has its top pick among auto OEMs, followed by TVS Motor Company in the 2W space. 

  It also likes M&M in the tractors segment. 

  Nomura, meanwhile, has 'Buy' ratings on M&M (target: ₹4,662), Hyundai Motor India (target: ₹2,698), Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (target: ₹547), TVS Motor (target: ₹4,159), and Ather Energy (target: ₹812). 

  It is 'Neutral' on Ashok Leyland, Bajaj Auto, Hero Moto Corp, and Maruti Suzuki.