Bajaj Auto Q3 in-line; analysts see further upside on exports, EV tailwinds

Antique Stock Broking said Bajaj Auto's Q3FY26 revenue, Ebitda and adjusted profit after tax were largely in line with expectations

Analysts expect further upside in Bajaj Auto Ltd.’s stock, remaining positive on the company’s performance after it reported an in-line third-quarter performance in the current financial year. 

 

The automobile major's consolidated net profit for the quarter grew by 25 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to ₹2,749 crore, with the revenue also growing 23 per cent to ₹16,204 crore.

 

Exports rebounded strongly in Q3FY26, crossing the 600,000 unit mark after 15 quarters, with export revenue at ₹544 crore, while sustaining double-digit Y-o-Y growth. Overall export volumes grew in the range of 15-20 per cent, with export revenues heading towards an all-time high in dollar terms.

Analysts on Bajaj Auto's Q3 results 

Antique Stock Broking said Bajaj Auto's Q3FY2026 revenue, Ebitda and adjusted profit after tax were largely in line with expectations. Looking ahead, the brokerage sees a strong earnings upswing, driven by export growth, scaling up of the electric vehicle portfolio towards profitability, and new product launches aimed at arresting domestic market share losses. 

 

Currency tailwinds, along with superior operational execution and financial discipline, are expected to support industry-leading margins and cash flows. Antique highlighted Bajaj’s fortress balance sheet, which enables investments in strategic growth areas such as KTM, electric vehicles and the financing arm, while also supporting generous shareholder returns.  ALSO READ | Syrma SGS Technology share price jumps over 10% as Q3 net profit doubles 

The brokerage maintained its 'Buy' rating, citing a favourable risk-reward profile, and raised its target price to ₹10,810 per share from ₹9,900, expecting a re-rating as Bajaj executes its product-led domestic recovery over the next six months.

 

Motilal Oswal said that a recovery in exports and a healthy ramp-up of Chetak and three-wheelers remain key positives for Bajaj Auto. However, the brokerage flagged continued market share loss in domestic motorcycles, particularly in the critical 125cc and above segment, as the key concern.

 

While Bajaj Auto has acquired a controlling stake in KTM under a favourable deal, Motilal Oswal said the success of the transaction will hinge on how quickly the company is able to turn around KTM’s operations, which remains a key monitorable. The brokerage reiterated its 'Neutral' rating on the stock, with a target price of ₹9,416 per share. 

JM Financial said that while Bajaj Auto has seen some improvement in the domestic two-wheeler market share following recent upgrades and refreshes, the current share of 10.5 per cent remains well below 12.1 per cent in January 2024.   ALSO READ | CV upcycle gathers pace, but brokerages split on Tata Motors outlook 

However, the brokerage noted that the response to models other than Pulsar has been underwhelming and, as a result, it does not expect meaningful market share gains despite eight additional refreshes planned over the next four months. Consequently, JM Financial downgraded the stock to 'Reduce' from 'Add'.

Bajaj Auto share price history

Bajaj Auto's shares have risen 1.7 per cent this year, compared to a 5 per cent decline in the benchmark Nifty 50. Bajaj Auto has a total market capitalisation of ₹1.65 trillion. 

 

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